工业硅期货早报-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a mixed situation. Supply has increased, and demand has also recovered to a certain extent, but demand recovery remains at a low level. Costs have increased, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9070 - 9270 [3][6]. - The polysilicon market has short - term supply increases and medium - term expected adjustments. Demand is in the process of continuous recovery, costs are stable, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 54185 - 55795 [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase from the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. The inventory of organic silicon is at a low level, with a production profit of - 454 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工率 of 70.05%, which is flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is at a high level [6]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3141 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On October 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 130 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.53% to 559,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.17% to 167,700 tons, and the inventory of major ports increased by 2.50% to 123,000 tons [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The net short position of the main position decreased [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level. Demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and the industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9070 - 9270 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The scheduled production in October is expected to be 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, a 2.64% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 184,700 tons, a 6.70% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components has decreased to varying degrees, with battery cell production in a loss state and component production in a profitable state [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,950 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On October 29, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 2640 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The net long position of the main position increased [8]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling will increase in the short term and adjust in the medium term. Demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is expected to recover in the medium term, with overall demand showing continuous recovery. Cost support is stable, and the polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 54185 - 55795 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts have increased to varying degrees, with the 01 contract rising 2.40% to 9170 yuan/ton [14]. - Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged [14]. - The basis of most contracts has decreased [14]. - Inventory shows different trends, with social inventory decreasing by 0.53%, sample enterprise inventory decreasing by 0.18%, and major port inventory increasing by 2.50% [14]. - Production and开工率 vary by region, with Xinjiang's production and开工率 increasing, and Sichuan's production and开工率 decreasing [14]. Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts have increased to varying degrees, with the 01 contract rising 1.17% to 54,990 yuan/ton [16]. - Prices of different types of silicon wafers remained mostly unchanged, and silicon wafer and battery cell production is in a loss state [16]. - The polysilicon inventory has increased by 1.98% to 258,000 tons [16]. - The production and demand of polysilicon in different months show different trends, with production and export showing some fluctuations [16]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends - Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: The report presents the historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between 421 and 553 in East China [18][19]. - Polysilicon Disk Price Trends: The report shows the price and trading volume trends of the polysilicon main contract, as well as the basis trend [21][22]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: It includes the inventory trends of delivery warehouses, ports, and SMM sample enterprises [24][25][26]. 3.4 Production and Cost Trends - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends: The report shows the weekly production trends of SMM sample enterprises in different regions, the monthly production by specification, and the开工率 trends [28][29][30][31]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends: It presents the cost - profit trends of 421 in Sichuan and Yunnan and the cost - profit trends of oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang [35][36]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Table: It shows the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon, including production, import, export, consumption, etc. [37][38]. - Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Table: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from September 2024 to September 2025, including production, consumption, export, and import [40][41]. - Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance Table: No detailed content is provided in the given text, only the title is mentioned [66]. 3.6 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - DMC Price and Production Trends: It includes the daily capacity utilization rate of DMC, the profit - cost trends of Shandong organic silicon DMC, and the weekly production trends [43][44]. - Downstream Price Trends: It shows the price trends of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [45][46][47]. - Import - Export and Inventory Trends: It presents the monthly import - export volume and inventory trends of DMC [50][51]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation: It includes the waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, import - export situation of unwrought aluminum alloy in China, the price trend of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12, and the cost - profit trend of imported ADC12 [53][54]. - Inventory and Production Trends: It shows the monthly production trends of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly开工率 of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [56][57]. - Demand (Automobiles and Wheels): It presents the monthly production and sales volume of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheels [58][59][60]. Polysilicon - Fundamental Trends: It includes the cost trend, price trend, total inventory, monthly production, monthly开工率, and monthly demand of the polysilicon industry [63][64].