广发期货《黑色》日报-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The supply - demand gap of steel in October narrowed again. The production of five major steel products was lower than the apparent demand, and the apparent demand was close to the level of the same period last year with little inventory pressure. The January contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to recover at the previous high. Hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure (rebar 3200 and hot - rolled coil 3400 yuan/ton). The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage has widened as the coil strengthened. With coal production cut, the arbitrage order can be held [1]. Iron Ore Industry - After the previous callback, the negative factors of iron ore have been fully digested. Unilateral trading strategy turns to buying the Iron Ore 2601 contract on dips, with the reference range of 780 - 850. It is recommended to conduct a positive spread arbitrage between Iron Ore 1 - 5 contracts [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, short - term fluctuations do not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. Speculative trading suggests buying Coke 2601 on dips, with the reference range of 1700 - 1850. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke, but be aware of large market fluctuations. For coking coal, short - term fluctuations do not affect the fourth - quarter bullish view. Unilateral trading recommends short - term buying on dips for Coking Coal 2601, with the reference range of 1200 - 1350. The arbitrage strategy is also to go long on coking coal and short on coke, and pay attention to large market fluctuations [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3220 to 3240 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of hot - rolled coil increased from 3316 to 3358 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billet and plate billet were 3000 yuan and 3730 yuan respectively, with the steel billet price increasing by 20 yuan. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions mostly declined. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 4 yuan to 17 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decline of 0.4%. The production of five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3 tons, an increase of 1.0%. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil also increased to some extent [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9 tons, a decline of 1.7%. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased, with the rebar inventory decreasing by 18.9 to 622.1 tons, a decline of 3.0% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.1 to 11.5 tons, an increase of 10.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil all increased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the basis of the 01 contract for some powders decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder increased from 844.7 to 854.6 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis of PB powder decreased from 52.2 to 50.1 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port and some price indexes increased slightly. For example, the price of PB powder in Rizhao Port increased from 796.0 to 805.0 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1 tons, a decline of 19.5%, while the global weekly shipping volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4 tons, an increase of 1.6%. The national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6 tons, an increase of 10.6% [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decline of 0.4%. The daily average port clearance volume decreased by 23.8 to 312.7 tons, a decline of 7.1%. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production also decreased [3]. Inventory Changes - The port inventory continued to accumulate, with a decrease of 112.4 to 14311.15 tons, a decline of 0.8%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2 tons, an increase of 1.1% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal contracts and some spot prices increased. For example, the 01 contract price of coke increased from 1748 to 1801 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price of coking coal increased from 1242 to 1302 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The daily average coke production of full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.7 to 64.6 tons, a decline of 1.04%. The production of coking coal in some regions decreased due to safety and governance issues [6]. Demand - The iron water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decline of 0.4%. The demand for coke and coking coal was affected by the decline in iron water production [6]. Inventory Changes - For coke, coking plants and steel mills reduced inventory, while ports increased inventory. For coking coal, mines, coal washing plants, and steel mills reduced inventory, while coking plants, ports, and borders increased inventory [6].