2025年10月美联储议息会议点评：加速降息进行时

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%[1] - The Fed announced the end of balance sheet reduction effective December 1, 2025[2] - Future rate cuts are expected, with a total of 75 basis points reduction anticipated in 2025 and an additional 50-75 basis points in 2026[6] Economic Context - The U.S. government has been in a shutdown for nearly a month, impacting the release of key economic data[1] - Historical data indicates a nonlinear relationship between the duration of government shutdowns and economic losses, with longer shutdowns leading to more permanent losses[5] - The September CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 3%, with core CPI rising only 0.2%, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum[2] Market Implications - The Fed's decision to cut rates aligns with market expectations and reflects a proactive response to economic constraints[2] - The current economic environment is characterized by increased uncertainty, necessitating a shift from traditional monetary policy rules to more flexible approaches[6] - The Fed may face political pressures and market expectations that could accelerate the pace of future rate cuts[6]