广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20251030

1. Glass and Soda Ash 1.1 Investment Rating Not provided 1.2 Core View The supply - demand pattern of soda ash is still bearish, but previous phased negatives are mostly out. It's recommended to close out previous short positions, wait and see in the short - term, and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. For glass, the market has stabilized and rebounded recently, but the industry's supply - demand situation remains weak in the long - term [1]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: Glass and soda ash spot prices in different regions remained unchanged, while futures prices of some contracts increased. The basis of some contracts decreased significantly [1]. - Supply: Soda ash's operating rate, weekly output, and float - glass daily melting volume increased, while photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - Inventory: Glass factory inventories and soda ash factory and delivery - warehouse inventories increased [1]. - Real Estate Data: New construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area all showed different degrees of change, mostly negative [1]. 2. Logs 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View Log futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Although the current price has cost support, there are expectations of weakening fundamentals in the future, including increased supply and weakening demand [3]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: Log futures prices fluctuated, and some spot prices remained unchanged, while some in Rizhao Port decreased [3]. - Supply: The number of pre - arriving log ships and the arrival volume increased [3]. - Inventory: The total national coniferous log inventory decreased, and the daily average outbound volume increased [3]. 3. Natural Rubber 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View In the short - term, the Fed's hawkish stance on December interest - rate cuts may put pressure on rubber prices. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase. The price may run around 15,000 - 15,500 if raw material supply is difficult, and may decline further if supply goes smoothly [5]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: Some spot and raw material prices remained unchanged, while some had small fluctuations. The basis and monthly spreads also changed [5]. - Fundamentals: Production in different countries and regions, tire production, exports, and tire factory operating rates all showed different degrees of change [5]. - Inventory: The bonded and general - trade inventory in the protected area decreased, while the futures inventory in the factory warehouse increased [5]. 4. Polysilicon 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View Polysilicon is mainly in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the establishment of the platform company and production control, as well as whether there is an increase in demand orders to support supply growth [7]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: Spot prices decreased slightly, and futures prices increased and then fell back. The monthly spreads changed significantly [7]. - Fundamentals: Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production, imports, exports, and net exports all showed different trends [7]. - Inventory: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased [7]. 5. Industrial Silicon 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View Industrial silicon is expected to be in a low - level oscillation. Although supply increases put pressure on prices, there is also cost support below [8]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: Spot prices remained unchanged, and futures prices increased. The basis and monthly spreads changed [8]. - Fundamentals: National and regional industrial silicon production, operating rates, and production of downstream products all showed different trends [8]. - Inventory: Some regional factory inventories and social inventories decreased slightly, while non - warehouse - receipt inventories increased slightly [8].