Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-30 08:21Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand with inventory reduction. The main contract is oscillating strongly, with increasing positions, spot discounts, and strengthening basis. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility is slightly rising. The technical indicator shows that the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with the initial appearance of green columns. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 83,400 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 195,625 hands, up 8,348 hands; the position of the main contract is 532,871 hands, up 25,989 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 1,160 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 27,641 hands/ton, up 116 hands [2] 现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,000 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 77,800 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 3,400 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 983 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 9,075 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 3,060 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,140 tons, up 1,260 tons; the monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, up 1%; the monthly output of power batteries is 151,200 MWh, up 11,600 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 33,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 105,000 yuan/ton, up 25,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 163,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 143,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 155,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, down 2%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 34,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 59%, up 2%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,617,000, up 226,000; the monthly sales volume is 1,604,000, up 209,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 46.09%, up 0.55%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 11,228,000, up 2,908,000; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 222,000, down 2,000; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1,758,000, up 830,000; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 22.82%, down 0.82%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 25.92%, up 0.01% [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position is 166,407, up 7,024; the total put position is 95,396, up 9,624; the total position put - call ratio is 57.33%, up 3.5119%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.34%, up 0.0008% [2] Industry News - China has built a complete lithium product supply system, with the output of basic lithium salts, metal lithium and its alloys, lithium - ion battery cathode materials, electrolytes and other products ranking first in the world for many years. Leading battery manufacturers are placing large orders for lithium iron phosphate, and lithium iron phosphate manufacturers are starting a new round of capacity expansion. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, ending the balance - sheet reduction from December 1st. The inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in September was 1.35, up 3.1% month - on - month and 4.7% year - on - year [2]