Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, industrial silicon prices are expected to decline with a small range. Southwest regions will see production cuts while northwest regions increase production. Demand from polysilicon is uncertain, while demand from silicone and aluminum alloy is relatively stable. Cost provides support for prices, but high inventory restricts upward price movement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,155 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the position of the main contract was 227,764 lots, up 7,102 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 57,526 lots, down 3,468 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 47,410 lots, up 72 lots; the closing price of the December contract was - 395 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between November - December contracts was - 395 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,450 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 295 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average prices of silica, petroleum coke, clean coal, wood chips, and graphite electrodes (400mm) were 410 yuan/ton, 2,110 yuan/ton, 1,850 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 12,250 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Industrial silicon monthly production was 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; monthly imports were 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons; monthly exports were 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly production of silicone DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.85 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,100 yuan/ton; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC was 70.05%, up 0.69 percentage points; the monthly production of aluminum alloy was 1.776 million tons, up 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons [2] Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's wind and photovoltaic power generation capacity exceeded thermal power for the first time, indicating that the energy revolution has entered a deeper stage. In the industrial silicon market, in Sichuan and Yunnan, production costs are rising as they transition from the wet season to the dry season in October, and some enterprises have stopped production. In Xinjiang, production is increasing due to stable and low - cost power supply [2] Demand Analysis - In the silicone segment, inventory is lower than the historical average, production profit has slightly recovered but is still in the loss range, and there is some rigid - demand procurement support. In the polysilicon segment, inventory is as high as 278,300 tons, higher than the historical average, and there is a risk of weakening demand support. In the aluminum alloy segment, the operating rate is stable, demand is high, but the marginal impact on prices is limited [2]
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20251030
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-30 08:43