Report Overview - Report Title: Polysilicon Industry Daily Report 2025 - 10 - 30 [2] - Researcher: Huang Wenjie [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03142112 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021738 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - In November - December, the inventory accumulation speed of polysilicon is expected to slow down, but the industry inventory at the end of 2025 will still likely exceed 400,000 tons. The downstream photovoltaic industry chain has weak demand, with component tender prices continuously falling, causing delays in centralized projects and a reduction in the demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers. Although N - type silicon materials maintain a certain premium due to the increasing penetration rate of TOPCon battery technology, the price of ordinary materials is approaching the cost line, and the industry's overall gross profit margin is narrowing. Internationally, the high inventory in the European market suppresses import demand, and while the loosening of US tariff policies drives the growth of energy storage system exports, it cannot fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, the emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America show a surge in demand, buffering the decline on the demand side to some extent. The market rumor of the relevant authorities' potential policy on strengthening photovoltaic capacity regulation boosts market confidence, and it is recommended to lay out long positions after the price decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 54,950 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract is 126,052 lots, up 7,622 lots. The basis of polysilicon from December to January is 70, up 20; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 45,795 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,350 yuan/ton, down 630 yuan/ton; the basis of polysilicon is - 2,640 yuan/ton, down 1,265 yuan/ton. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) is 1.36 yuan/piece, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.51 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars/kg [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 9,155 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2,350 US dollars/ton, down 270 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,873,000 kilowatts, up 1,016,000 kilowatts. The average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules is 0.74 yuan/W, unchanged; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,200 pieces, down 19,491,300 pieces; the monthly import volume is 14,733,700 pieces, down 6,706,500 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/piece, up 0.06 US dollars/piece [3]. 3.6 Industry News - This week, the transaction price range of polysilicon N - type re - feeding materials is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The transaction price range of N - type granular silicon is 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The activity in the domestic polysilicon market is low this week, with a light overall trading atmosphere. The number of mainstream signing enterprises has decreased to 3 - 4, and the order scale has decreased compared with the previous week. Currently, there are 11 domestic polysilicon enterprises in production. In October, the domestic polysilicon output was about 137,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.2%, 5.4% higher than expected, mainly because some enterprises slightly increased the operating rate within the limited production capacity in the fourth quarter to spread costs. The downstream operating rate remains relatively stable. As the dry season approaches in the southwest region in November, the production cost of polysilicon enterprises will increase, and some enterprises have started to reduce raw material input, such as partial bases in Sichuan and Yunnan, which have gradually reduced production recently. The demand side is relatively weak, and the demand in the downstream photovoltaic industry chain is sluggish [3].
瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20251030
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-30 08:43