Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Although some primary lead smelters plan to boost annual production and sales, there are many maintenance activities from October to November, so primary lead production is expected to increase slightly. For recycled lead, smelters affected by Document 770 are gradually resuming production, but raw material inventory levels are low, and waste transportation is affected by environmental protection requirements in the north, so the increase in recycled lead production is limited, and lead ingot spot will remain tight in the short term. It is recommended to short at high prices. After the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has significantly rebounded, and the traditional consumption season, along with the replacement market of cars and electric bicycles, supports lead demand. Some leading battery companies have good orders and are expanding energy - storage business, which will further increase lead demand. However, since September, the Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots has gradually widened, and the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure due to tariffs, which will suppress demand growth to some extent. Inventory has been decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and the possible increase in recycled lead production, inventory may change next week. If the inventory depletion rate slows, it will resist price increases. It is recommended to short at high prices [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,350 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,019 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars. The spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai lead is 119,775 lots, down 2,688 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 496 lots, up 1,470 lots. Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 21,645 tons, down 1,352 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 36,333 tons, down 5,368 tons; the LME lead inventory is 224,875 tons, down 4,800 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the lead main contract is - 150 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 35.12 dollars/ton, up 0.42 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,671 yuan, up 275 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 17,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 82.65%, up 1.01 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.96 tons, up 0.05 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The global lead ore production is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 9,967.86 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 19,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly automobile production is 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - On October 30, a large recycled lead smelter in East China started the furnace - drying operation on Monday and plans to start formal production this weekend. According to SMM analysis, after resuming production, it is expected to contribute over 10,000 tons to the recycled refined lead production in November, which will have a positive impact on market supply. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut [3]
瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20251030
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-30 08:43