瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20251030

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report On Thursday, the RB2601 contract faced pressure and pulled back. The macro - situation shows that the leaders of China and the US had a meeting in Busan, South Korea, agreeing to strengthen cooperation in economic and trade fields. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to increase with a capacity utilization rate of 46.6%, rising for two consecutive weeks; terminal demand increased while inventory declined for three consecutive weeks. Overall, the supply - demand environment of rebar has improved. However, with the Fed's interest rate cut and the end of the Sino - US summit, the market's mainstream funds reduced long positions and increased short positions, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are pulling back from high levels. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,106.00 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the position volume was 1,894,916 lots, up 909 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 68,256 lots, down 20,857 lots. The RB1 - 5 contract spread was - 64 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of RB on the SHFE was 145,840 tons, down 300 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 212 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,374 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,340.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,200.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 184.00 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 80.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 807.00 yuan/wet ton, up 4.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 3,000.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan. The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 144.2065 million tons, up 1.3895 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 373,700 tons, down 1,200 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3327 million tons, down 60,000 tons. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.73%, up 0.48%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.92%, down 0.39% [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 2.1259 million tons, up 55,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 46.60%, up 1.21%. The factory inventory of sample steel mills was 1.7171 million tons, down 129,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.3081 million tons, down 66,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1.541 million tons, up 66,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 992,000 tons, up 91,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 0.50%, down 1.00%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 13.90%, down 1.00%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 1.10%, down 0.90% [2].