瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20251030

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The inventory accumulation trend has slowed, but the inventory pressure remains high. The cost of the calcium carbide method has increased and losses have deepened; the cost of the ethylene method has decreased and losses have also deepened. This week, the 500,000 - ton Inner Mongolia Yili and 500,000 - ton Shandong Xinfa Phase II plants are restarting, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rebound to a relatively high level. In the long - term, the new capacity launch will further increase the supply pressure. The weak real - estate market continues to drag down demand growth, and the downstream start - up is expected to change little. Coal is expected to remain strong, and the supply of calcium carbide is affected by the power - use policy in the northwest, while downstream plants are restarting one after another, so the raw material cost of PVC is expected to rise. The supply - demand drive of PVC remains weak, but the stronger cost side raises the lower limit of valuation. In the short - term, V2601 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and technically, attention should be paid to the pressure around 4900 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1,045,974 lots, an increase of 205,951 lots. The open interest was 1,161,917 lots, a decrease of 42,460 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 896,091 lots, a decrease of 7,941 lots; the short positions were 1,018,333 lots, a decrease of 24,189 lots; and the net long positions were - 122,242 lots, an increase of 16,248 lots [2] 3.2现货市场 - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4815 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4650.77 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.08 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4820 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4731.88 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton (unchanged), the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC was - 106 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2800 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China was 2706.67 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Northwest China was 2555 yuan/ton (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 488 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 36 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia was 518 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 31 US dollars/ton. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 179 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia was 184 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton [2] 3.4产业情况 - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 76.57%, a decrease of 0.12%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 74.38%, a decrease of 0.33%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 81.64%, an increase of 0.38%. The total social inventory of PVC was 554,700 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 505,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons; in the South China region was 49,500 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [2] 3.6期权市场 - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 10.37%, an increase of 0.59%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.86%, an increase of 0.15%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 13.84%, a decrease of 0.74%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 13.85%, a decrease of 0.72% [2] 3.7行业消息 - From October 18th to 24th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.57%, a decrease of 0.12% compared with the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 1.27% to 49.86%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 41.2%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 2.61% to 35.87%. As of October 30th, the social inventory of PVC was 1.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% compared with last week. From October 18th to 24th, the average cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5144 yuan/ton, and the average cost of the ethylene method decreased to 5412 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide method decreased to - 723 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene method decreased to - 560 yuan/ton [2]