瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply - side pressure is small as the import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted in the fourth quarter, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal futures continued to fluctuate and close higher, and short - term observation is recommended. Attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode in the fourth quarter, which supports its price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at a rigid level. Affected by the decline of palm oil, the rapeseed oil price has been in a weak adjustment recently, and short - term observation is recommended. Attention should be paid to the China - Canada trade policy [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9529 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 2401 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan). The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 640.6 Canadian dollars/ton (up 3.4 Canadian dollars), and that of the active rapeseed contract is 5270 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of rapeseed oil is 319 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 66 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan) [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 226014 lots (down 7051 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is 350537 lots (down 1311 lots) [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 4403 lots (up 921 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is - 101718 lots (up 11227 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 7540 pieces (unchanged), and that of rapeseed meal is 3915 pieces (unchanged) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9800 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2480 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan). The average price of rapeseed oil is 9917.5 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan), and the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7891.02 yuan/ton (up 28.82 yuan). The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 275 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and that of the main rapeseed meal contract is 79 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8390 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2970 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1460 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1050 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 490 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global predicted annual production of rapeseed is 90.96 million tons (up 1.38 million tons), and the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons (up 1068 thousand tons) [2]. - Import quantities: The total import quantity of rapeseed in the current month is 11.53 million tons (down 13.13 million tons), the import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 16 million tons (up 2 million tons), and the import quantity of rapeseed meal in the current month is 15.77 million tons (down 5.57 million tons) [2]. - Pressing profit and开机率: The import rapeseed disk pressing profit is 589 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 2.93% (down 0.27%) [2]. - Inventories: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 2 million tons (down 1 million tons) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventories: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 4.2 million tons (down 1 million tons), the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.71 million tons (down 0.07 million tons), the rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 49.4 million tons (down 0.5 million tons), the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 26.75 million tons (down 0.45 million tons), the rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 2.7 million tons (down 0.2 million tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 21.3 million tons (down 0.8 million tons) [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 0.35 million tons (down 1.28 million tons), and the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 0.22 million tons (down 0.75 million tons) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The current - month production of feed is 3128.7 million tons (up 201.5 million tons), and the current - month production of edible vegetable oil is 495 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The current - month social consumer goods retail total of catering revenue is 4508.6 billion yuan (up 12.9 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.81% (down 0.69%), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 19.67% (down 0.97%), the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.56% (up 2.26%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.55% (up 2.26%) [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 25.44% (up 2.21%), the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 25.56% (up 0.55%), the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.21% (down 0.37%), and the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.69% (down 0.03%) [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On October 29 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures rose, and trading volume jumped, supported by the hope that the oversupply of North American vegetable oil supply would start to improve. The January rapeseed contract closed up 2.50 Canadian dollars at 641.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - A survey showed that as of last Sunday, the US soybean harvest rate reached 84%. As the US soybean harvest advanced, the supply - side pressure continued to constrain its market price. After the China - US presidential meeting on October 30, the specific trade agreement was still unclear, and the market's concern about the US soybean demand prospects resurfaced, and the US soybean futures price also significantly declined from its high [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed开机率 and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from My Agricultural Network on Monday, the development of China - Canada and China - US trade relations, and the initial ruling of the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed [2]