瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251030

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall production of methanol decreased due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than capacity outputs from recovery. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises increased this week, while the port inventory fluctuated slightly. It is expected that the port methanol inventory will accumulate next week. The overall operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry decreased this week, but it is expected to increase next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2200 - 2260 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2208 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 1320963 lots, an increase of 123548 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 253892 lots, a decrease of 33714 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 11997, a decrease of 125 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2170 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2020 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 150 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract was - 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 258 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 324 dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 267 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 66 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.34 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.09 dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 99.73 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 50.92 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons. The import profit of methanol was - 7.63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.88 yuan. The monthly import volume was 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 376100 tons, an increase of 15700 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 38.87%, a decrease of 2.01 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid was 74.4%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.79%, an increase of 4.67 percentage points; the operating rate of olefins was 90.43%, a decrease of 1.96 percentage points. The disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 773 yuan/ton, an increase of 113 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 19.87%, an increase of 1.48 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.45%, an increase of 1.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.45%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 29, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 37.61 tons, an increase of 1.57 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 4.36%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 21.56 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 0.04%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 150.65 tons, a decrease of 0.57 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 2.97 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 2.40 tons. The domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate was 91.28%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points [2].