Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port shows a de - stocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses de - stocking, and the de - stocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse narrows [2]. - Overseas standard rubber arrivals at Qingdao continue to decline, leading to a slight de - stocking in the bonded warehouse; the increase in mixed rubber arrivals and warehousing meets expectations, but tire factories mainly adopt a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in a narrowing of the overall de - stocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse [2]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly. Semi - steel tire enterprises' production schedules are mostly stable, and it is expected that their production enthusiasm will remain high due to concentrated snow - tire orders and a large number of specifications; the shipment of all - steel tire enterprises is stable, and most enterprises' production schedules are expected to remain stable, with the overall capacity utilization rate expected to fluctuate slightly [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15300 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12320 - 12800 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15400 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12525 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan [2]. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2875 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 1467 to 144722 hands, and the positions of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 5380 to 34659 hands [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 5480 to - 28553, and the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber decreased by 1872 to - 10171 [2]. - The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 1220 tons to 121670 tons, and the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts increased by 604 tons to 44857 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 15300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1890 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1890 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15150 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The Shanghai rubber basis is - 550 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 475 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13389 yuan/ton, up 174 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 864 yuan/ton, up 369 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 59.82 Thai baht/kg, down 0.24 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 55.6 Thai baht/kg, down 0.55 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 55.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) is 53.25 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 182.4 US dollars/ton, down 38.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51 US dollars/ton, down 0.6 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically - specified natural rubber is 12.26 million tons, up 0.95 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 31.75 million tons, up 4.91 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.58%, up 1.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, up 0.95 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 40.34 days, up 0.39 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 45.26 days, up 0.09 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 20.92%, up 1.43 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 18.3%, up 0.82 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 21.85%, up 0.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 21.84%, up 0.39 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 24th to October 30th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly in Vietnam and southern Thailand, which has an enhanced impact on tapping; the red areas south of the equator are mainly in southern Indonesia and eastern Malaysia, and the impact on tapping is slightly weakened [2]. - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon [2]. - As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons or 1.20% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 68,700 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the general trade inventory was 363,500 tons, a decrease of 1.18% [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The raw material supply in Yunnan is stable, and the raw material purchase price remains firm; in Hainan, the tapping is affected by rainfall, and the output of fresh glue is scarce, with limited raw material purchase volume [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.12%, down 0.72 percentage points month - on - month and 7.61 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.34%, down 0.53 percentage points month - on - month and up 6.15 percentage points year - on - year [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251030
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-30 09:25