合成橡胶产业日报-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term raw material end is under continuous bearish expectations, there will still be an obvious price difference between private resources and Sinopec & PetroChina resources, downstream buyers may still wait for price drops, production enterprise inventory is expected to continue to decline, and trading enterprise inventory may slightly increase [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly. Semi - steel tire enterprises' production schedules are mostly stable, with concentrated snow tire orders and many specifications, so production enthusiasm is expected to remain high. All - steel tire enterprises' shipments are stable, and most enterprises' production schedules will likely remain stable, with overall capacity utilization rate expected to fluctuate slightly [2] - The 512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,500 - 11,000 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5; the position of the main contract is 47,385 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,831 [2] - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 3,010 tons, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 (Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 150; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 150 [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 10,850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 [2] - Brent crude oil is 64.92 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.52; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 750 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change [2] - Naphtha CFR Japan is 571.13 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.5; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 930 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 [2] - WTI crude oil is 60.48 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.33; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 7,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.53 million tons/week, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 65.62%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 24,600 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,200; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.04%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.04 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.53; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.45%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.37 [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 204 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 156; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.32 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04 [2] - The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 28,650 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 750; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 4,520 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 340 [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.95; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.58%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.06 [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 11; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 219 [2] - The weekly inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 40.34 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.39; the weekly inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.26 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09 [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 30, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.12%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.72 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.34%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.15 percentage points [2] - In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber output is 13.76 million tons, an increase of 0.72 million tons from last month, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber in October is 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber have slightly declined [2] - As of October 30, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory is 3.09 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 6.90% [2]