沪铜产业日报-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View - The Shanghai copper main contract declined slightly, with reduced positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, the tight supply of copper concentrate has not improved, TC fees hover in the negative range, and the impact of overseas mine disturbances persists, keeping ore prices firm. In terms of supply, due to many maintenance operations and the tight supply of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity may be restricted. Additionally, the price of smelting by - product sulfuric acid shows signs of decline, affecting smelting profits and potentially reducing the operating rate, leading to a gradual contraction of domestic refined copper supply. On the demand side, copper prices remain high due to cost support and overseas macro - sentiment, causing downstream buyers to be cautious and adopt a wait - and - see purchasing strategy. High copper prices suppress downstream demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory accumulation. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.34, up 0.018 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment, and implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 87,960 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 11,031.50 dollars/ton, down 152 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 10 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 281,460 lots, down 8,749 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 31,495 lots, down 2,416 lots. The LME copper inventory is 135,350 tons, up 775 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 104,792 tons, down 5,448 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 14,675 tons, up 3,500 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 37,437 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 87,765 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metal Market 1 copper spot price is 87,770 yuan/ton, down 405 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 52 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 35.50 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is - 195 yuan/ton, up 610 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 months spread is - 19.66 dollars/ton, down 0.12 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 2.5869 million tons, down 172,000 tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.70 dollars/kiloton, down 1.73 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 78,020 yuan/metal ton, down 420 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 78,720 yuan/metal ton, down 420 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the north, it is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 1.266 million tons, down 35,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 60,440 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 730 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 74,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 2.232 million tons, up 10,000 tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 437.8 billion yuan, up 58.224 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6,770.571 billion yuan, up 739.652 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,371,236,100 pieces, up 120,949,000 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 24.68%, up 0.44 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.49%, up 0.21 percentage points. The at - the - money implied volatility (IV) of the current month is 23.91%, up 0.0393 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is up 0.018 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - A special fund for the development of strategic emerging industries of central state - owned enterprises has been launched, with an initial scale of 51 billion yuan, focusing on strategic emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, aerospace, high - end equipment, and quantum technology, as well as future industries. In September, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.35, up 3.1% month - on - month and 4.7% year - on - year, with the inventory level below the warning line but higher than the reasonable range. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction from December 1. There are significant differences within the Federal Reserve on the subsequent interest - rate path. Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on China - US relations and issues of common concern [2].