农产品早报-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term due to the concentrated listing of new - season corn. In the long - term, the game between farmers and traders will be crucial. A significant price drop may trigger farmers' resistance and lead to a price rebound [3]. - Starch prices are likely to decline in the short - term as raw material prices fall. In the long - term, if prices drop significantly, downstream consumption may increase and support prices [4]. - International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's high - pressure supply during the peak crushing season. In China, the arrival of imported sugar and lower processing sugar quotes put pressure on the market [5]. - Cotton prices are in a range - bound state. If there are no major macro - risks, the April low can be seen as a long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7]. - Egg prices have rebounded slightly due to the easing of supply pressure and the increase in storage by traders. Future price trends depend on the chicken culling rhythm [11]. - Apple prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short - term as the new - season late - maturing Fuji apples are listed. The overall production has decreased, and some areas have quality issues [15]. - Pig prices have rebounded slightly recently. However, mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm and capital trends in the futures market [15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From October 24 to October 30, the price in Changchun decreased by 20 yuan, and the price in Shekou decreased by 20 yuan. The basis increased by 5, the trade profit decreased by 20, and the import profit decreased by 29 [3]. - Analysis: Short - term weakness due to new - season corn listing; long - term price depends on the game between farmers and traders [3]. Sugar - Price Data: From October 24 to October 30, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained unchanged, the basis increased by 22, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 84 [5]. - Analysis: International supply pressure from Brazil affects prices, and in China, imported sugar and processing sugar quotes impact the market [5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From October 24 to October 30, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 10, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 126, the price of spot cotton yarn increased by 70, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 78, and the spinning profit increased by 59 [7]. - Analysis: Cotton prices are in a range - bound state, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7]. Eggs - Price Data: From October 24 to October 30, the prices in major production areas remained stable, the basis increased by 16, and the price of live pigs decreased by 0.07 [11]. - Analysis: Supply pressure has eased, and demand has increased slightly. Future price trends depend on the chicken culling rhythm [11]. Apples - Price Data: From October 24 to October 30, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7500 yuan, the 1 - month basis decreased by 70, the 5 - month basis increased by 20, and the 10 - month basis increased by 57 [14][15]. - Analysis: The new - season apples are listed, with a decrease in overall production and quality issues in some areas. Prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short - term [15]. Pigs - Price Data: From October 24 to October 30, the prices in some production areas changed slightly, and the basis increased by 205 [15]. - Analysis: Short - term price rebound, but mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm and capital trends [15].