广发早知道：汇总版-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the market shows a complex and diverse trend. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, some macro - favorable factors are gradually implemented, but different sectors have different performances. Some sectors are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, while others are influenced by policy and cost factors [2][9][20]. - In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures are affected by Sino - US consensus and market expectations, and there are opportunities for short - term option operations; treasury bond futures are expected to have short - term trading opportunities with the implementation of risk - preference factors; precious metals are affected by geopolitical and economic factors and are expected to have a long - term bull market [2][6][9]. - In the commodity futures market, different varieties have different trends. For example, copper has long - term supply - demand contradictions to support the price, while aluminum is affected by macro and fundamental factors and maintains a high - level shock [20][26]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the market digested the expectations and adjusted. The A - share market declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. It is recommended to try to sell put options at the support level or construct a bullish call spread [2][3][5]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Negative factors are gradually implemented, and the bond market sentiment is enhanced. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy [6][8]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, geopolitical concerns resurfaced, and precious metals fluctuated and rebounded. In the long - term, they are expected to have a bull market, while in the short - term, gold may face downward pressure, and silver maintains a shock pattern [9][12]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot market is cold, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The bullish expectations of interest rate cuts and tariffs are fulfilled, and the price fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the price, and in the short - term, it is affected by demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 87,000 [20]. - Alumina: The spot price in the north shows signs of stopping falling, and the futures price stabilizes at a low level. The price is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short - term, and the main contract fluctuates between 2,750 - 2,950 [20][23]. - Aluminum: The price is strong, affected by macro and fundamental factors, and is expected to maintain a high - level shock. The main contract reference range is 20,800 - 21,400 [24][26]. - Aluminum Alloy: The spot price is firm, and the inventory accumulates slightly. The price is expected to maintain a strong shock, and the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,800 [26][28]. - Zinc: The spot transaction is average, and the price fluctuates. The supply increase may be limited, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to maintain a shock, and the main contract reference range is 21,800 - 22,800 [31][32]. - Tin: Powell's hawkish attitude on the December interest rate cut may cause the short - term price to fall. It is recommended to buy on dips, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [32][35]. - Nickel: After the Sino - US meeting, the macro is stable, and the price fluctuates. The main contract reference range is 118,000 - 126,000 [35][38]. - Stainless Steel: The price fluctuates, and the supply pressure increases. The main contract reference range is 12,500 - 13,000 [39][42]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price center moves up, and the demand is strong. The main contract reference range is 83,000 - 87,000 [42][45]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: The supply and demand are neutral, and the inventory pressure is not large. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply of coking coal and reduce positions at high - pressure levels [47][48]. - Iron Ore: The supply and demand are weak, and the price falls after rising. It is recommended to close long positions and pay attention to the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [49][51]. - Coking Coal: The price is strong, and the downstream replenishment demand is warm. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [52][55]. - Coke: The mainstream coke enterprises start the third round of price increase, and the cost is supported by coking coal. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [56][59]. Agricultural Products - Meal: China's confidence in purchasing US soybeans is enhanced, and the near - month soybeans have cost support. The domestic soybean meal trend is expected to be strong [60][62]. - Pigs: The entry of secondary fattening slows down, and the pig price tends to fluctuate. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [63][64]. - Corn: The supply pressure still exists, and the price fluctuates weakly. The port price is affected by inventory and cost [65].