大越期货沪铜早报-20251031

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being liberalized. In September, manufacturing production accelerated, and the PMI rose to 49.8%, with the economic climate continuing to improve. The copper price is expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, such as the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia [2]. Industry Analysis Fundamentals - The supply side has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production cuts, and the scrap copper policy is liberalized. In September, manufacturing production accelerated, and the PMI reached 49.8%, with the economic climate continuing to improve, showing a neutral situation [2]. Basis - The spot price is 87,920, and the basis is -40, indicating a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [2]. Inventory - On October 30, copper inventories decreased by 400 to 134,950 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 5,448 tons from the previous week to 104,792 tons, showing a neutral situation. The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [2][13]. Market Trends - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a bullish situation [2]. Main Position - The main net position is short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish situation [2]. Supply - Demand Balance - There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024 [19][21]. Other Factors - The processing fee has declined, and the recent analysis of long and short factors includes global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3][15].