大越期货玻璃早报-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass industry has a weak fundamental outlook. In the short term, it is expected to operate with a weak and fluctuating trend. The supply has declined to a relatively low level, and there are more disturbances on the supply side recently, but the terminal demand recovery is weak [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1091 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.19% from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - size glass was 1048 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38% from the previous value. The main basis was - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48.19% from the previous value [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1048 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side No detailed content provided. Fundamental Analysis - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%. The number of operating production lines was at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, and the production capacity was at the lowest level in the same period in history and was stabilizing and recovering [24][26]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand was still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises was at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry was not optimistic, and traders and processors were cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [30][6]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 65.79 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.24% from the previous week. The inventory was running above the 5 - year average [45]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, and other indicators. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, the consumption was 53.1 million tons, and the production growth rate was 3.94%, while the consumption growth rate was - 1.15% [46]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of production capacity clearance in the float glass industry. There are more disturbances on the supply side due to the "coal - to - gas" conversion of some production lines in the Shahe area [5]. - Negative Factors: The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious [6]. Main Logic The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level for the same period. Recently, there have been more disturbances on the supply side, but the terminal demand recovery is weak. It is expected that the glass will mainly operate in a fluctuating manner [7].