沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251031

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The external market has declined, and the price is fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The nickel ore price is firm, the nickel - iron price is stable with a slight decline, and the stainless - steel inventory has slightly decreased. The new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost is limited. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The 2512 contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. The short - term nickel ore price is firm, the freight rate is stable, the nickel - iron price is stable with a slight decline, and the cost line has moved down. The stainless - steel inventory has slightly decreased. The 2512 contract of stainless steel is expected to run with a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Overview - Nickel and Stainless - Steel Futures: On October 30, the Shanghai nickel main contract was at 120,980 yuan, down 560 yuan from the previous day; the London nickel was at 15,250, down 155; the stainless - steel main contract was at 12,725 yuan, down 80 yuan. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was at 120,350 yuan, down 750 yuan, and the cold - rolled coil index was at 12,420 yuan, down 30 yuan [11]. - Spot Prices: On October 30, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,200 yuan, up 300 yuan; the price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in different regions remained unchanged [11]. Inventory Situation - Nickel Inventory: As of October 30, the LME nickel inventory was 251,640, a decrease of 66; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 31,532, an increase of 99. The total inventory increased by 33 [14]. - Stainless - Steel Inventory: As of October 24, the Wuxi stainless - steel inventory was 601,100 tons, the Foshan inventory was 302,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,027,400 tons, a decrease of 13,800 tons compared with the previous period. The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts on October 30 remained unchanged at 73,777 [18][19]. Cost Factors - Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices: On October 30, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 30 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained stable. The high - nickel wet - ton price was 925 yuan per nickel point, and the low - nickel wet - ton price was 3,050 yuan per ton, both unchanged [22]. - Stainless - Steel Production Cost: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,867 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,067 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,694 yuan [24]. - Nickel Import Cost: The converted import price was 122,378 yuan per ton [27]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cut, anti - involution policies, and the firm ore price with a cost support line at 120,000 yuan [6]. - Negative Factors: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [6].