芳烃橡胶早报-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: The low processing fee for TA has persisted for a long time, and the improvement in terminal data supports the continuation of polyester operation. With limited new capacity coming online in the far - month, the processing fee center may gradually recover [3]. - MEG: EG has entered a continuous inventory accumulation phase due to high existing capacity and new plant commissioning. However, there may be some negative feedback on the supply side after the weakening of coal - based efficiency and price ratio. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling put options near the coal - based cost [9]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: The operation of staple fiber plants is stable, and inventory is decreasing. Given the limited overall inventory pressure, low processing fees on the futures market, high export volume, and good spot efficiency, attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding spreads on dips and the situation of warehouse receipts [9]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber: The national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber is stable. The current strategy is to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Index Changes: From October 24 to October 30, 2025, the price of crude oil increased by $0.1, PTA spot price increased by 85 yuan/ton, PX processing margin increased by $3/ton, and PTA processing margin increased by 87 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increased by 6,246, and the basis increased by 6 yuan/ton [2]. - Device Changes: Dushan Energy's 3 - million - ton plant started production. Near - term, some TA plants restarted, and the operating rate continued to rise [3]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: From October 24 to October 30, 2025, the MEG outer - market price decreased by $1/ton, the inner - market price decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by $5/ton [9]. - Device Changes: Fujian Refining's 400,000 - ton plant restarted. Near - term, domestic oil - based plants had planned maintenance and some unexpected situations, resulting in a decline in the operating rate [9]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From October 24 to October 30, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the profit of staple fiber decreased by 8 yuan/ton [9]. - Device and Operation Changes: The operating rate of staple fiber plants remained at 94%, and the operating rate of recycled cotton - type plants remained at 51%. The sales - to - production ratio improved, and inventory continued to decrease [9]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From October 24 to October 30, 2025, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber decreased by $20/ton, the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 225 yuan/ton, and the price of RU main contract decreased by 225 yuan/ton [9]. - Related Index Changes: The difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract increased by 145 yuan/ton, and the difference between US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber and NR main contract remained unchanged [9]. Styrene - Price and Index Changes: From October 24 to October 30, 2025, the price of ethylene remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene decreased by $14/ton, and the price of styrene decreased by $10/ton. The domestic profit of styrene increased by 108 yuan/ton, and the domestic profit of EPS increased by 80 yuan/ton [12].