LPG早报-20251031

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Domestic civil LPG prices dropped significantly, while the PG main contract fluctuated upward. With no pressure on inventory and increased downstream purchasing willingness, spot prices are expected to rise slightly. However, propane is still greatly affected by Sino - US tariff policies, so cautious participation is recommended [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Price Changes - Daily Changes: Civil LPG prices in some regions showed small rebounds in decline. In the East China region, the price was 4285 (+11), in Shandong it was 4280 (+10), and in South China it was 4400 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4370 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong. The daily spread was 27 (+69), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 82 (-5). The CP official price was announced slightly higher than expected, with propane and butane at 475 (-20) and 460 (-15) respectively. The FEI price increased to 513.62 (+1.62) dollars/ton [1]. - Weekly Changes: The domestic civil LPG price dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable product was East China civil LPG at 4279 (-66); Shandong was 4360 (+160), and South China was 4405 (-55). The number of warehouse receipts was 2416 lots, with 2300 from Wanhua, 64 more from Yunda, and 52 more from Haiyu Petrochemical. The overseas market price increased significantly [1]. Market Indicators - Basis and Month Spreads: The basis was - 69 (-49), the 11 - 12 month spread was 90 (-47), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 113 (-1) [1]. - Arbitrage Windows and Spreads: The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The CP South China arrival discount was 74 (-4). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 116 (+0), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 56 (-4). The FEI - MOPI spread narrowed but the switching window was still open. The latest value was - 82.5 (-11.5). The PG - CP spread was 114 (-17); the PG - FEI spread was 79 (-33). The FEI - CP spread was 35 (+15) [1]. Industry Conditions - Profit and Operating Rate: The profit of PDH decreased. The PDH operating rate was 71.66% (+2.9 pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but the second - phase of Zhongjing shut down again. Next week, Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume production [1]. - Inventory and Supply: The arrival volume was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventories and factory warehouses decreased. Chemical demand provided support, and the expectation of combustion demand improved [1].