白糖早报-20251031

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Different institutions have varying forecasts for the global sugar supply in the 2025/26 season, with most predicting an oversupply. - In the short - term, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively strong, especially for near - term contracts. In the long - run, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar price trends is unsustainable, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market around 5500 for the Zhengzhou sugar main contract 01 increases. - The domestic sugar market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of US cola. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, expected oversupply in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the external sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, and increased import impact [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August forecast. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 277 million tons in the 2025/26 season, while ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 11.1621 billion tons, cumulative sugar sales were 10 billion tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. This is a bearish signal [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5780, and the basis for the 01 contract is 308, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: As of the end of August 2024/25, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: Recently, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively strong, especially for near - term contracts. In the long - run, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar price trends is unsustainable, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market around 5500 for the Zhengzhou sugar main contract 01 increases [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply. ISO predicts a supply gap of 20,000 tons (basically balanced), StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 million tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 620 - 750 million tons, Datagro predicts a surplus of 153 million tons, Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420 million tons, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a surplus of 40 million tons, and Green Pool predicts a surplus of 115 million tons [35]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, China's sugar production is expected to remain stable at around 11.2 billion tons, imports are expected to be 5 billion tons, consumption is expected to be 15.9 billion tons, and the balance change is expected to be 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content is provided.