国债期货早报-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the inter - bank bond market is warm, with spot bond yields declining by about 1bp. The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly rose, and the 30 - year main contract increased by 0.19%. The tax payment period has basically ended, and the inter - bank money market has become more relaxed, with the overnight repo rate of deposit - taking institutions dropping by more than 9bp to a low of 1.31%. The fourth - quarter bond market faces a generally favorable fundamental and policy environment but remains in a volatile pattern [3]. - The central bank has continued to increase the volume of MLF renewals for the 8th consecutive month. In September, the manufacturing PMI recovered but was still below the boom - bust line. The CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, while the year - on - year increase in core CPI expanded for the 5th consecutive month. New social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level, and the M2 growth rate expanded due to the "migration of RMB deposits". The LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - The inter - bank bond market sentiment is warm, spot bond yields decline, and the main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly rise. The tax payment period ends, and the money market eases. The market is highly concerned about the China - US summit [3]. 3.2 Fund Flow - On October 30, the People's Bank of China conducted 3426 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 2125 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 1301 billion yuan [3]. 3.3 Basis - The basis of TS main contract is - 0.0721, indicating that the spot bond is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of TF main contract is - 0.0427, also bearish. The basis of T main contract is 0.1084, indicating that the spot bond is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The basis of TL main contract is 0.0476, also bullish [3]. 3.4 Inventory - The balance of deliverable bonds for the main contracts of TS, TF, and T are 1359.4 billion yuan, 1493.5 billion yuan, and 2359.9 billion yuan respectively, which is neutral [4]. 3.5 Market Trends - The TS main contract is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish. The TF main contract is also above the 20 - day moving average with an upward 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The T main contract is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. 3.6 Main Positions - The TS main contract has a net long position, and the long position increases. The TF main contract has a net long position, and the long position increases. The T main contract has a net long position, but the long position decreases [5]. 3.7 Market Quotes | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Position Change | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2512.CFE | 108.630 | 0.05% | 68,993 | 245,110 | - 1,169 | 220017.IB | | TF2512.CFE | 106.065 | 0.00% | 54,366 | 149,269 | 160 | 250003.IB | | TS2512.CFE | 102.554 | - 0.01% | 33,991 | 73,541 | 2,319 | 250012.IB | | TL2512.CFE | 116.15 | 0.19% | 128,226 | 144,078 | - 1,963 | 220008.IB | [8]