建信期货铁矿石日评-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 30, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, closing at 802.5 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The current fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand with minor contradictions, mainly influenced by news. The outcome of the Sino-US leaders' meeting was slightly lower than market expectations but the overall trend is positive. The rumors of Tangshan's production restrictions and the solicitation of opinions on a new round of capacity replacement plans have restored confidence in the black industry chain, leading to a short - term strong operation of ore prices [7][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 30, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract was volatile and slightly stronger. It opened higher, fluctuated upward, dived in the afternoon and then recovered, closing at 802.5 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The main iron ore offshore quotes rose by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port rose by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract on the daily line showed a divergent trend, with the K and D values continuing to rise and the J value turning down. The MACD indicator's golden red column on the daily line of iron ore 2601 has been expanding for two consecutive days [7][9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: On October 30, the Sino - US leaders met in Busan, South Korea. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year. Both sides will suspend relevant export control measures for one year and study specific plans. The US will suspend the 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries for one year, and China will take corresponding counter - measures. They also reached consensus on issues such as fentanyl anti - drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual cases of relevant enterprises [10][11]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have rebounded, and the arrivals have significantly declined to a low level, which is a regular decline after the end of the quarterly volume rush. The cumulative shipments in the past four weeks reached 1.09 billion tons, an increase of 2.65% compared with the previous four weeks, and the future arrivals are expected to rebound. The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou, Guinea, by Rio Tinto is expected in November, with a limited short - term impact. The daily average pig iron output has continued to decline to below 2.4 million tons, mainly due to the narrowing steel production profit, and it may continue to decline slightly. The demand for the five major steel products has continued to recover this week, and their output has rebounded again. The current steel mills are back to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the inventory available days dropping to 20 days, a relatively low level this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate to 144 million tons and is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [12]. 3.2 Industry News - The outcomes of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur are as follows: The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly. Both sides will suspend relevant export control measures for one year and study specific plans. The US will suspend the 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries for one year, and China will take corresponding counter - measures. They also reached consensus on issues such as fentanyl anti - drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual cases of relevant enterprises. They further confirmed the results of the Madrid economic and trade consultations, and the US made positive commitments in the field of investment. China will properly handle issues related to TikTok [13][14]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents a series of data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices, trading volumes, and inventory of iron ore and steel products, the shipments and arrivals of iron ore, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, and the production and consumption of steel products. The data sources are mainly from the websites of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the Dalian Commodity Exchange, and Mysteel, as well as the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [5][8][15].