大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a complex situation. The supply side has a high - level production, with the predicted increase in both production and import volume in the next month. The demand side is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. Cost - wise, the cost of some ore - sourced materials is rising, resulting in losses, while the cost of the salt - lake side is low with sufficient profit margins [8]. - Overall, due to capacity mismatch leading to strong supply and weak demand, the downward trend is difficult to change. The lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 82,480 - 84,320 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, a 1.07% week - on - week decrease, but higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in the next month will be 89,890 tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September 2025 was 19,597 tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 22,000 tons, a 12.26% increase [8]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 104,347 tons, a 1.49% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,592 tons, a 3.50% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 80,456 yuan/ton, a 1.11% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,583 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 85,678 yuan/ton, a 1.37% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 8,830 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Basis: On October 30, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 3,400 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 32,051 tons, a 4.83% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 53,288 tons, a 3.59% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The overall inventory was 127,358 tons, a 2.30% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Overview: The futures closing prices of various contracts have increased to varying degrees, and the basis of most contracts has changed, with the spot generally at a discount to the futures. The prices of upstream lithium ores, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries have also changed to different extents [13]. - Supply - Demand Data: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, import, and export data of lithium carbonate and related materials have changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate has increased, and the monthly export has also increased significantly [16]. - Inventory Data: The inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has changed, with the overall inventory showing a downward trend [8].