大越期货生猪期货早报-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The supply of domestic large - scale pig farms has begun to decrease after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, which supports the short - term price of live pigs. It is expected that the supply of pigs and pork will both decrease this week. The overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market may experience a double - decline in supply and demand this week, with short - term pig prices oscillating downward and maintaining a range - bound pattern in the medium term. The LH2601 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,700 - 12,100 [8]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content provided for daily prompt. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market has entered a slack season, with both supply and demand decreasing. The spot price of live pigs is weak in the short term and maintains a range - bound pattern in the medium term [10]. - Pork demand has weakened in the short term after the festivals, but the spot price of live pigs has returned to an oscillating state due to reduced supply. The continued decline space may be limited, and it may show a trend of bottoming out and rebounding [10]. - The loss of domestic pig - farming profits has recently widened, and the enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter has weakened in the short term. The double - decline in supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [10]. - The spot price of live pigs has remained stable after the National Day, and the futures have generally returned to a range - bound pattern in the medium term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The domestic live pig supply has entered a slack season after the long holiday, and the continued decline space of the domestic live pig spot price may be limited [11]. - Bearish factors: There is a pessimistic expectation in the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war, and the domestic live pig inventory has increased year - on - year [11]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and demand: In the supply aspect, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. In the demand aspect, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [8]. - Base difference: The national average spot price is 12,510 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the 2601 contract is 630 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [8]. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [8]. 5. Position Data - The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [8].