大越期货沥青期货早报-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure is high, with refineries reducing production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply may increase next week. The total planned output of local refinery asphalt in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.0777%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31 percentage points. The total sample enterprise output is 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.53%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 676,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.74% [8]. - The demand is weak, with the current demand below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 is 9.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the modified asphalt开工率 is 12.0898%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 32%, a month - on - month increase of 3 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 30%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5 percentage points [8]. - The cost support is weakening. The daily asphalt processing profit is - 567.04 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 687.0586 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.36%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - The inventory shows a mixed trend. The social inventory is 1.005 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37%; the in - plant inventory is 710,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; the diluted asphalt inventory is 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. The social inventory and in - plant inventory are continuously decreasing, while the port inventory is continuously increasing [8]. - The market is expected to have a narrow - range shock in the short term. The asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3232 - 3276 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side: The supply pressure is high. Although refineries have reduced production this week, supply may increase next week. The planned output of local refinery asphalt in November 2025 shows a significant month - on - month increase [8]. - Demand - side: The demand is sluggish, with the开工 rates of various types of asphalt below the historical average, indicating that the overall demand recovery is weak [8]. - Cost - side: The cost support is weakening due to the increase in asphalt processing losses and the decrease in the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking, along with the weakening of crude oil [8]. - Inventory: The social and in - plant inventories are decreasing, while the port inventory is increasing [8]. - Market Expectation: The asphalt market is expected to have a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 fluctuating between 3232 and 3276 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Yesterday's Market Overview: The prices of most asphalt contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 20 yuan to 3254 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%. The social inventory decreased by 4.6 tons to 1.005 million tons, a decrease of 4.38%. The in - plant inventory decreased by 1.7 tons to 710,000 tons, a decrease of 2.34% [15]. - Analysis of Basis, Spread, and Price Ratios: - Basis: On October 30, the Shandong spot price was 3270 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 16 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Spread: The report provides the spread trends of asphalt contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12), asphalt - crude oil prices, and asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratios, which can help investors understand the price relationships between different contracts and products [20][23][30]. - Price Ratios: The price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil are presented, which are important for analyzing the relative value of different products [30]. - Fundamental Analysis: - Profit Analysis: The asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt are analyzed, showing the profitability of asphalt production and its relationship with coking [36][39]. - Supply - side: It includes aspects such as the shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, output, price of Ma Rui crude oil, and production capacity utilization rate. For example, the weekly shipment volume of sample enterprises is 290,660 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.73% [42]. - Inventory: It covers the exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio. The social inventory and in - plant inventory are decreasing, while the port inventory of diluted asphalt is increasing [62][66][69]. - Import and Export: The export and import trends of asphalt are presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [72]. - Demand - side: It includes the output of petroleum coke, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction investment, sales of asphalt - related machinery), and asphalt开工 rates. The overall demand is weak, with most asphalt开工 rates below the historical average [78][81][84]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet shows the relationship between supply and demand in different months of 2024 - 2025, including downstream demand, inventory, export, import, and output [103][104].