股指期货早报-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The meeting between Chinese and US leaders reached significant consensus, with short - term positive effects materialized and the index undergoing a pull - back adjustment, and the premium of index futures increased. The margin trading balance was 2488.5 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6 billion yuan. The IH2512 had a premium of 1.61 points, and the IF2512 had a discount of 9.91 points. The market order was IH>IC>IF>IM, and IH, IF, IC, and IM were above the 20 - day moving average. The long positions of IF and IC main contracts decreased, while those of IH increased. After the Fourth Plenary Session, the technology sector strengthened, and the index rebounded. Currently, it is recommended to appropriately reduce positions on days of significant intraday gains, and the index is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Index Futures Premium and Discount: IC2512 had a discount of 86.71 points, IM2512 had a discount of 120.68 points, indicating a bearish signal. IH2512 had a premium of 1.61 points, and IF2512 had a discount of 9.91 points, showing a neutral situation [3]. - Index Futures Data: Data on contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividend yields, spreads, premium/discount ratios, annualized premiums/discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining terms of IH, IF, IC, and IM from 2025 to 2026 were provided [4]. - Base and Spread Charts: Base and spread charts of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 500 were presented, with data sourced from Wind Information and compiled by Dayue Futures [5][8]. Spot Market - Important Index Daily Price Changes: Daily price change data of important indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, etc. were shown [11]. - Style Index Daily Price Changes: Daily price change data of style indexes including 300 Cycle, 300 Non - Cycle, etc. were provided [14]. - Industry Index Daily Price Changes: Daily price change data of industry indexes such as Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (Shenwan), Basic Chemicals (Shenwan), etc. were given [18]. Market Structure - AH Share Premium/Discount: The chart of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index from 2025/02/05 to 2025/10/30 was presented [21]. - Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE): The PE (TTM) chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index from 2004 to 2025 was shown [23]. - Price - to - Book Ratio (PB): The PB chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index from 2004 to 2025 was presented [25]. Market Fundamentals - Stock Market Fund Inflows: The chart of A - share fund net inflows and the CSI 300 from 2021 to 2025 was shown [27]. - Margin Trading Balance: The chart of margin trading balance and the CSI 300 from 2021 to 2025 was presented [29]. - Northbound Capital Inflows: The chart of northbound capital net inflows from 2021 to 2024 was shown [31]. - Stock Unlock: No specific content was provided, only the data source was mentioned [34]. - Funding Cost: The chart of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week from 2025/02/05 to 2025/10/30 was presented [37]. Market Sentiment - Trading Activity: The turnover rate (free - floating market value) charts of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index were shown [40][43]. - Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions: No specific content was provided, only the data source was mentioned [46]. Other Indicators - Index Dividend Yield and 10 - Year Treasury Yield: The chart of the dividend yields of the CSI 300, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 and the 10 - year treasury yield from 2015 to 2025 was presented [49]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: The chart of the US dollar - to - Renminbi exchange rate from 2021 to 2025 was shown [51]. - New Account Openings and Shanghai Composite Index Tracking: No specific content was provided. - Newly Established Fund Scale Changes: No specific content was provided for the newly established scale changes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds [55][57][59].