建信期货豆粕日报-20251031

Report Information - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions 1.1 Market Quotes - Domestic Soybean Meal Contracts: The prices of domestic soybean meal contracts such as M2601, M2603, and M2511 showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the M2601 contract closed at 2994, up 20 points or 0.67% [6]. - External Market: The US soybean futures contract on the external market pulled back, with the main contract at 1080 cents. After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the CBOT soybean futures contract pulled back significantly [6]. 1.2 Market Analysis - International Situation: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, a partial framework agreement was reached, and subsequent additional tariffs were cancelled. Regarding US soybean purchases, Trump said that China would start purchasing, but China has not made a clear response. The agreement does not specify the amount of US soybean imports, and it is more likely to be a spontaneous market purchase after comparing with Brazilian soybeans, which is weaker than expected [6]. - South American Situation: In South America, the new - season soybeans in Brazil are being sown normally and orderly, with the progress faster than last year and few topics [6]. - Domestic Situation: Domestic soybean meal rebounded significantly today. Previously, it was weak due to the expectation of US soybean imports. Since the agreement was less than expected, it rebounded. If it is only a spontaneous market purchase behavior in the future, the support below soybean meal is still obvious. Pay attention to the clear conclusion of future tariffs [6]. 2. Industry News - US Crop Harvest Progress: As of Sunday, the US soybean harvest is expected to be 84% complete, and the corn harvest is 72% complete. Analysts' forecasts for the US harvest progress range from 80% - 88% for soybeans and 67% - 80% for corn. Last year, the soybean harvest progress was 89%, and the corn harvest progress was 81% [9]. - Brazilian Soybean and Soybean Meal Exports: Anec expects Brazil's soybean exports in October to reach 7 million tons, down from the previous week's forecast of 7.34 million tons. Brazilian soybean meal exports in October are expected to reach 2.08 million tons, down from 2.09 million tons the previous week [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the M01 contract, the spread between M1 - 5, the spread between M5 - 9, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][20][21]