建信期货生猪日报-20251031

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year, and secondary fattening increases future supply pressure. In October, the pig slaughter volume continued to increase significantly, but the short - term pressure on large - scale farms has eased to some extent, and farmers are reluctant to sell due to the increasing price difference between fat and standard pigs [8]. - On the demand side, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased, and terminal consumption has increased but with insufficient continuous increment. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and their slaughter volume has decreased [8]. - Overall, the spot market may fluctuate as the supply pressure has been alleviated by secondary fattening, but the continuous upward space is limited. The futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly as there may be double supply pressure before the Spring Festival [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 30th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened flat and then declined, closing at 11,880 yuan/ton, down 2.30% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 24,476 lots to 341,989 lots [7]. - Spot: On the 30th, the average price of external ternary pigs nationwide was 12.58 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. Pig Market Comment - Supply: Long - term supply is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year, and short - term supply pressure in October is high. However, the short - term pressure on large - scale farms has eased, and farmers are reluctant to sell [8]. - Demand: Secondary fattening has turned to a wait - and - see attitude, terminal consumption has increased but with insufficient continuous increment, and the slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises has decreased. On October 30th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 161,100 heads, a decrease compared to the previous day, week, and month [8]. - Overall: The spot market may fluctuate, and the futures market may fluctuate weakly [8]. 2. Industry News - Not provided in the report 3. Data Overview - Profit: As of October 23rd, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 138 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 50.4 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 378.6 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 53.6 yuan/head [13]. - Piglet Price: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of October 23rd was 255 yuan/head, a decrease of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [13]. - Price Difference: The price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of October 23rd was 0.69 yuan/jin, a weekly increase of 0.09 yuan/jin [13]. - Fattening Cost: The cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.02 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.39 yuan/kg; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.38 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.43 yuan/kg [13]. - Average Slaughter Weight: As of the week of October 23rd, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 127.90 kg, a weekly decrease of 0.35 kg, a monthly decrease of 0.65 kg, and an annual increase of 1.83 kg [13]. - Utilization Rate of Fattening Pens: As of mid - October, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 44.8%, a 12.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period and a 10 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [13].