大越期货豆粕早报-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - M2601 Soybean Meal: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2960 - 3020. The US soybean market is affected by the preliminary Sino - US agreement and technical buying, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US trade negotiations and US soybean harvest weather. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by the US soybean trend, but high imports in October and spot price discounts suppress the market, likely to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - A2601 Soybeans: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The US soybean market is affected by trade negotiation signals and technical adjustments. The domestic soybean market is supported by the US soybean trend and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imports, but high imports and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the market [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt There is no specific content provided for the daily prompt in the given text. 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but uncertainties remain in Sino - US trade negotiations and US soybean weather. The US soybean market will oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills declined from a high level in October. The soybean meal market will return to an oscillatory pattern in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in October and suppressing price expectations [13]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continued to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations will keep the soybean meal market oscillating in the short term [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in US soybean - producing area weather [14]. - Bearish Factors: High volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected high yield of US soybeans [14]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [14]. Soybeans - Bullish Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [15]. - Bearish Factors: The high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production, suppress price expectations [15]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2940, with a basis of - 54, indicating a discount to the futures price. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease from the same period last year [9]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 3, indicating a discount to the futures price. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase from the same period last year [11]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9]. - Soybeans: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [11]. Other Market - Related Information - Price and Transaction Data: The report provides the trading prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from October 22 to 30, as well as the prices of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot from October 22 to 30 [16][18]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: It shows the warehouse receipt data of soybeans and soybean meal from October 21 to 30, including changes compared to the previous day [20]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [32][33]. - Sowing and Growth Progress: The sowing and growth progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), and Brazil (2024/25) are presented, including sowing rate, emergence rate, good - quality rate, etc. [34][35][39]. - USDA Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 are provided, including data on planting area, yield, production, ending inventory, and exports [43]. - Other Market Conditions: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The volume of imported soybeans in China decreased from a high level in October but increased year - on - year. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills remained high, and the inventory of soybean meal decreased from a high level [44][46][47].