大越期货纯碱早报-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] - The main logic is that soda ash supply is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply-demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.91% from the previous value; the low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%; the main basis was -55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.68% [6] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 3.3 Soda Ash Production - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia-alkali method was -92.40 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co-production method was -199 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15] - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.94% [18] - The weekly output of soda ash was 74.06 tons, including 41 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [20] - From 2023 to 2025, there was significant new production capacity, with a total planned new capacity of 1570 tons, and 100 tons actually put into production in 2025 [21] 3.4 Demand for Soda Ash - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 99.78% [24] - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 16.13 tons, and the operating rate was 76.35%, showing signs of stabilization [27] - The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continued to decline [2] 3.5 Soda Ash Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 0.01% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five-year average [34] 3.6 Supply-Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided a supply-demand balance sheet for soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]