大越期货尿素早报-20251031

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have started to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but decreasing price difference between domestic and international markets. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied, but the short - term market is expected to warm up. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is - 47, with a premium/discount ratio of - 3.0%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish. The short - term price of the urea main contract is expected to warm up, and it is predicted that UR will fluctuate today [4]. - The bullish factors for urea are strong international prices, increasing exports, and short - term decline in daily production. The bearish factor is domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate decline from high levels, comprehensive inventory slightly drops. Agricultural demand rebounds due to weather, industrial demand is weak, with falling operating rates for compound fertilizers and melamine. Export volume increases with a large but decreasing price difference. Domestic market is oversupplied, but short - term market may warm up. Spot price of delivery product is 1580 (unchanged), fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: UR2601 contract basis is - 47, premium/discount ratio is - 3.0%, bearish [4]. - Inventory: UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [4]. - Expectation: Short - term price of the urea main contract is expected to warm up, and it is predicted that UR will fluctuate today [4]. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: Strong international prices, increasing exports, short - term decline in daily production [5]. - Bearish: Domestic oversupply [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | Spot price of delivery product is 1580 (unchanged), Shandong spot price is 1600 (unchanged), Henan spot price is 1580 (unchanged), FOB China price is 2662 [6]. | | Futures Market | UR01 contract price is 1627 (- 17), UR05 contract price is 1705 (- 12), UR09 contract price is 1735 (- 12), UR2601 contract basis is - 47, premium/discount ratio is - 3.0% [4][6]. | | Inventory | UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), warehouse receipts are 2970 (unchanged), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons (unchanged), UR port inventory is 210,000 tons (unchanged) [4][6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] |