建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20251031

Report Information - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On October 30, the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures 2601 rose slightly and then gave back some of the previous day's gains [7] - The closing prices of coke J2601 and coking coal JM2601 were 1786.5 yuan/ton and 1288 yuan/ton respectively, with daily price changes of -0.59% and -1.62% [5] - The KDJ indicator of the coke 2601 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values turning down and the D value continuing to rise, showing a potential dead - cross. The MACD red bar of the coke 2601 contract narrowed, while that of the coking coal 2601 contract continued to expand slightly [10] - The spot prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao, Qingdao, and Tianjin ports remained unchanged at 1570 yuan/ton. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Handan increased by 50 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions remained stable [10] 1.2 Future Outlook - Policy: On October 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a new draft of the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry", with stricter replacement ratio requirements. Tangshan planned a 30% blast furnace production limit from October 27 for 4 days due to environmental protection [11] - Fundamentals: Recent coke production from independent coking enterprises and steel producers has declined. Coke inventories at ports and independent coking enterprises are generally low, leading to a demand for the third round of price increases, expected to be implemented by the end of the month. Cold weather in northern regions and stricter coal mine safety inspections have pushed up coal prices. Coking coal port inventories are low, and although imports have recovered, the January - September imports are still down by over 6% year - on - year, causing a significant jump in coking coal spot prices [11] - Outlook: Coke and coking coal futures are expected to continue their upward trend, supported by positive news and the spot market. After a short - term sharp rebound, there may be a phased correction, but the overall upward trend is difficult to reverse. Future attention should be paid to the impact of rising temperatures on coal demand and the positive cycle effect of steel market profit recovery on the coal - coke market [12] 2. Industry News - Sino - US Trade: On October 30, the US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and continue to suspend the 24% tariff for another year. Both sides will suspend relevant export control measures for one year and reach consensus on issues such as fentanyl anti - drug cooperation and expanding agricultural product trade [13] - Carbon Market: The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will accelerate the construction of the national carbon market, including expanding the coverage, implementing quota control and paid distribution, tightening quotas, and promoting the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market [14] - Steel Company Performance: In Q3 2025, Baosteel's revenue was 81.064 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.83%, and net profit was 3.081 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 130.31%. Shagang's revenue was 3.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.66%, and net profit was 75.5324 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5518.37%. Shandong Steel's revenue was 18.022 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.74%, and net profit was 127 million yuan [14] - Coal Company Performance: In Q3 2025, Shanxi Coking Coal's revenue was 9.122 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20.84%, and net profit was 420 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 52.24%. Lu'an Huanneng's revenue was 7.031 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.83%, and net profit was 206 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 63.96%. Shaanxi Coal's revenue was 40.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20.91%, and net profit was 5.075 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 26.59%. Dayou Energy reported a loss of 1.122 billion yuan in the first three quarters [14] - Other News: Vietnam launched an anti - circumvention investigation on Chinese hot - rolled coils; Australia and Thailand launched anti - dumping and anti - circumvention investigations on Chinese steel products; the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and will stop balance sheet reduction on December 1; Anglo American's metallurgical coal production in Q3 2025 was 1.884 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%; Glencore's coal production from January - September 2025 was 98.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.6%; the US imposed new sanctions on Russian oil companies [13][15][16] 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the summary price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization of coking plants and steel mills, national daily average hot metal production, coke and coking coal inventories at ports, coking plants, and steel mills, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [18][22][23][30][32]