大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251031

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - LLDPE is expected to trade in a range today, with the plastic main contract fluctuating, the Sino-US negotiation reaching a preliminary consensus, Russian oil facing new sanctions leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, the peak season demand for agricultural films continuing, and the industrial inventory at a neutral level [4] - PP is also expected to trade in a range today, with the main contract fluctuating, the Sino-US negotiation reaching a preliminary consensus, Russian oil facing new sanctions leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, and downstream peak season demand providing support [6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: The official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium- to long-term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. On October 30, Sino-US leaders met, the US canceled a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspended a 301 investigation into China's maritime and logistics sectors for one year, and China adjusted countermeasures accordingly. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in oil prices. On the supply and demand side, the peak season demand for agricultural films continues, with stable production, while the rest of the film categories have completed stocking and production has declined. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6990 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 22, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, neutral [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 466,000 tons (-114,000), neutral [4] - Market: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, bearish [4] - Main Position: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract has decreased, bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to trade in a range today [4] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium- to long-term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. On October 30, Sino-US leaders met, the US canceled a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspended a 301 investigation into China's maritime and logistics sectors for one year, and China adjusted countermeasures accordingly. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in oil prices. On the supply and demand side, the demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -21, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, neutral [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 595,000 tons (-84,000), neutral [6] - Market: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract has decreased, bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to trade in a range today [6] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: Detailed data on capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other aspects from 2018 to 2025E are provided, showing trends in capacity growth, production, and consumption [13] - Polypropylene: Similar to polyethylene, detailed data on capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other aspects from 2018 to 2025E are provided, showing trends in capacity growth, production, and consumption [15] Market Data - Spot and Futures Prices: Spot and futures prices and their changes for LLDPE and PP are provided, including prices in different regions, main contracts, and import prices [8] - Inventory Data: Inventory data for LLDPE and PP, including warehouse receipts and comprehensive factory and social inventories, are provided [8]