Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and it is necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4738 - 4794 [8][9][13]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth [13]. - The main influencing factors include both positive and negative aspects. The positives are supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negatives are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - 基差: On October 30, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 26 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The situation is neutral [10]. - 库存: The in - factory inventory was 33.38 tons, a 7.35% decrease from the previous period. The calcium carbide - method factory inventory was 25.21 tons, a 9.02% decrease, and the ethylene - method factory inventory was 8.17 tons, a 1.80% decrease. The social inventory was 55.47 tons, a 0.26% decrease. The inventory - to - production days of production enterprises was 5.6 days, a 6.66% decrease. The situation is neutral [10]. - 盘面: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20. The situation is neutral [10]. - 主力持仓: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing. The situation is bearish [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Supply - In September 2025, the PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% decrease from the previous month. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.57%, with no change from the previous period. The production of calcium carbide - method enterprises was 316,280 tons, a 0.45% decrease, and the production of ethylene - method enterprises was 150,360 tons, a 0.47% increase. The supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that the number of maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production [7]. Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 49.86%, a 0.27 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 35.87%, a 0.61 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 41.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 72.5%, unchanged from the previous period, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 58.76%, a 2.47 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain weak [8]. Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 722.72 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 1.30% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 560.46 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 1.30% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2373.25 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 2.10% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8]. Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that the number of maintenance will decrease next week, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain weak. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4738 - 4794 [9]. 3. PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, spreads, operating rates, inventories, and other information of different types of PVC [15][16]. 4. PVC Futures Market - 基差走势: Relevant charts show the historical trends of the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [18][19]. - 行情走势: Charts display the trading volume, price trends, and position changes of PVC futures contracts in 2025 [22]. - 价差分析: Charts show the historical trends of the spreads of the main contracts [25][26]. 5. PVC Fundamental Analysis Calcium Carbide Method - 兰炭: Charts show the historical trends of the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production of semi - coke [28][29]. - 电石: Charts show the historical trends of the mainstream price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide [31][32]. - 液氯和原盐: Charts show the historical trends of the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price, monthly production of raw salt [33][34]. - 烧碱: Charts show the historical trends of the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and flake caustic soda inventory of caustic soda [35][36][38]. PVC Supply - Charts show the historical trends of the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC [40][41][44]. Demand - Charts show the historical trends of the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - to - production ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate of PVC [46][48]. - Charts show the historical trends of the operating rates of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin [50]. - Charts show the historical trends of the profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin [52]. - Charts show the historical trends of real estate investment completion, housing construction area, new housing starts, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area [54]. - Charts show the historical trends of social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year [56]. Inventory - Charts show the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - method factory inventory, ethylene - method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [57][58]. Ethylene Method - Charts show the historical trends of the import volume of vinyl chloride, ethylene dichloride, PVC export volume, FOB price difference of the ethylene method, and vinyl chloride import price difference [59][60]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [63].
大越期货PVC期货早报-20251031
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-31 02:41