工业硅期货早报-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9055 - 9255 for the 2601 contract [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production scheduling will increase in the short - term and is expected to回调 in the medium - term. The demand side, including silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, is expected to recover in the medium - term. Overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 54160 - 55740 for the 2601 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase compared to the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, components are profitable, organic silicon inventory is at a low level, and its production is in a loss state with a comprehensive operating rate of 70.05% and flat compared to the previous week, lower than the historical average [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3141 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On October 30, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 145 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.53% to 559,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.17% to 167,700 tons, and major port inventory increased by 2.50% to 123,000 tons [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease compared to the previous week. The scheduled production for October is expected to be 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, a 2.64% increase compared to the previous week, and inventory was 184,700 tons, a 6.70% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. Battery cell and component production also have different trends in production and inventory, with components being profitable [8]. - Cost: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,950 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On October 30, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 2600 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase compared to the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - Main position: The main position is net long, and long positions decreased [8]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed different degrees of decline or increase, and spot prices of different grades remained stable [15]. - Inventory data of different regions and types showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing [15]. - Production and operating rates of different regions also showed different changes [15]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed different degrees of decline or increase, and prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable or changed slightly [17]. - Inventory, production, and export data of different products also showed different trends [17]. 3.3 Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 grades showed different trends over time [19][20]. 3.4 Polysilicon Disk Price Trends - The disk price, trading volume, and basis of polysilicon showed different trends over time [22][23]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Inventory - Inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, showed different trends over time [25][26][27]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production of sample enterprises in different regions and the monthly production by specification showed different trends over time [29][30][31]. - The operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions also showed different trends over time [32][34]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost and profit of 421 in Sichuan, Yunnan, and oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang showed different trends over time [36][37]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Tables - Weekly: Displays the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon and its related products over time [38][39]. - Monthly: Displays the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon and its related products over different months [41][42]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon DMC Price and Production Trends - DMC's daily capacity utilization rate, profit, cost, production, and price showed different trends over time [44][45]. Downstream Price Trends - The prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 showed different trends over time [46][47][48]. Import - Export and Inventory Trends - DMC's import, export, and inventory showed different trends over time [51][52][53]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy Price and Supply Situation - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12, import cost, profit, and import - export situation showed different trends over time [54][55]. Inventory and Production Trends - The monthly production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, operating rates, and social inventory showed different trends over time [57][58]. Demand (Automobiles and Wheel Hubs) - The monthly production, sales of automobiles, and export of aluminum alloy wheel hubs showed different trends over time [59][60][61]. 3.11 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends - The cost, price, inventory, production, operating rate, and demand of polysilicon showed different trends over time [64][65]. Supply - Demand Balance Table - Displays the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance of polysilicon over different months [67][68]. Silicon Wafer Trends - The price, production, inventory, demand, and net export of silicon wafers showed different trends over time [70][71]. Battery Cell Trends - The price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export of battery cells showed different trends over time [73][74]. Photovoltaic Component Trends - The price, production, inventory, and export of photovoltaic components showed different trends over time [76][77]. Photovoltaic Accessory Trends - The price, production, import - export of photovoltaic coatings, films, glass, quartz sand, and solder strips showed different trends over time [79][80].