大越期货菜粕早报-20251031

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is in a wait - and - see mode for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Despite the end of the peak demand season, low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the short - term trend lacks clear guidance and remains volatile [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. The main risks are the decline in domestic aquaculture demand after the long holiday and the potential increase in imported rapeseed arrivals [12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal futures rebound after hitting the bottom, while the spot price is relatively stable, with a slight fluctuation in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remains stable in October, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continues to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory remains flat week - on - week. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remains at a low level. The price of aquatic fish rises slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [18][20][23] 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce the expected supply in China. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, especially in Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has a relatively offsetting impact on rapeseed production, and global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodities [11] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12] - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports [12] 4. Fundamental Data - Trading Data: From October 22nd to 30th, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 2959 to 3026, and the trading volume ranged from 5.35 to 14.86 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2440 to 2530, and the trading volume was mostly 0, except for 0.3 million tons on October 29th. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 496 and 523 [13] - Price Data: From October 21st to 30th, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2321 to 2401, and the far - month 2605 contract ranged from 2300 to 2338. The spot price of rapeseed meal (Fujian) ranged from 2460 to 2530 [15] - Warehouse Receipt Data: From October 21st to 30th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 7702 to 3915, with several decreases during the period [17] 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, but the funds flowed out [9]