大越期货甲醇早报-20251031

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - For methanol 2601, the mainland's inventory is low and coal prices are firm, but the overall start - up is high, and the negative feedback from olefins is emerging. The port is affected by sanctions, with reduced downward momentum but weak fundamentals. It is expected that the mainland's price fluctuation range is limited, and the port will maintain high - volatility with both ups and downs this week. The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate mainly, and MA2601 will operate in the range of 2200 - 2260 [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For methanol 2601, the mainland's cost - end support is strengthened, but there is supply pressure in some areas, and the negative feedback from olefins is showing. The port is affected by sanctions, with reduced downward momentum but weak fundamentals. The basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, the disk is bearish, the main position is net short and increasing, and it is expected to fluctuate this week [4] 2. Long and Short Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: Some devices are shut down, Iran's methanol start - up is reduced, some acetic acid devices are put into production or plan to be put into production, and northwest CTO plants purchase methanol externally [6] - Likely to be Bearish: Previously shut - down devices are restarted, there will be concentrated arrivals at the port in the second half of the month, formaldehyde enters the off - season, MTBE start - up declines significantly, coal - to - methanol has profit margins and is actively selling goods, and inventory in some production areas is accumulating [7] 3. Fundamental Data - Price: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2210 yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis is 2, and the spot premium is over futures. In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim and Jiangsu remains unchanged, CFR China Main Port drops by 5 US dollars/ton, and the import cost drops by 41 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the futures closing price drops by 49 yuan/ton, and the registered warehouse receipts decrease by 125 [4][8] - Inventory: As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 128.29 million tons, a slight increase of 1.31 million tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable supply in coastal areas decreases by 0.53 million tons to 83.83 million tons [4] - Start - up Rate: The national weighted average start - up rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous period. The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest all decline [8] 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Methanol Plants: Many plants in Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions are under maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and losses [55] - Overseas Methanol Plants: Some plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are in different operating states, including restarting, running stably, or under maintenance [56] - Olefin Plants: Olefin plants in Northwest, East, Central, and other regions have different operating conditions, some are running stably, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future maintenance or production [57]