建信期货原油日报-20251031

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term market is gradually digesting the bullish factors of sanctions and Sino - US negotiations. Without further support, oil prices may decline again under the pressure of oversupply. It is recommended to maintain a bearish outlook [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Data: WTI (main contract) opened at $60.18, closed at $60.36, with a high of $61.02, a low of $59.7, a daily increase of 0.35%, and a trading volume of 25.06 million lots. Brent (main contract) opened at $63.9, closed at $64.3, with a high of $64.7, a low of $63.38, a daily increase of 0.74%, and a trading volume of 43.48 million lots. SC (main contract) opened at 461.5 yuan/barrel, closed at 458.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 466.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 45 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of 0.07%, and a trading volume of 10.87 million lots [6]. - Market Analysis: EIA data showed that as of the week of the 24th, US crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels week - on - week, and gasoline and diesel inventories also declined. Overnight oil prices rebounded slightly. On the morning of the 30th, Sino - US leaders held direct talks, but the market reaction was muted [6]. 2. Industry News - US President's Statement: President Trump said that a very large - scale agreement might be reached, involving the purchase of oil and gas from Alaska [7]. - Shell's View: Shell CFO believes there is a credible scenario of oil supply surplus in 2026 [7]. - ANZ Bank's Forecast: ANZ Bank expects OPEC+ to approve an additional supply increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December due to increased risks to Russian supply [7]. - US Sanctions: On October 29, the US announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting two major Russian oil companies - Lukoil and Rosneft, along with their 34 subsidiaries. US citizens and enterprises are prohibited from trading with them, and entities with over 50% ownership are automatically restricted. These sanctions echo those of the UK on October 15 and the EU on October 23, which include a ban on short - term contracts for importing Russian LNG from April 2026 and a full - scale long - term ban from 2027 [7]. 3. Data Overview - Data Sources: Bloomberg, EIA, and wind, along with the research and development department of CCB Futures [10][11][13] - Data Charts: Include global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [12][13][18]