建信期货油脂日报-20251031

Report Details - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fats [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Macro factors show positive signals from Sino-US meetings and economic and trade consultations. Palm oil faces pressure due to strong production increase expectations in major producing areas, slowing export data, and expected inventory increases, but there are long - term expectations of production cuts and B50. Soybean imports are expected to decrease after November, and soybean oil may turn to inventory reduction. For rapeseed oil, attention should be paid to the arrival and crushing of Australian seeds and the progress of Sino - Canadian relations, with domestic spot basis remaining stable and strong and continuing the inventory reduction trend. Short - term is seen as volatile adjustment, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - Market Review - East China's third - grade rapeseed oil: From October to November, it is OI2601 + 390; from December to January, it is OI2601 + 320. East China's first - grade rapeseed oil: From October to November, it is OI2601 + 480; from December to January, it is OI2601 + 400. East China's first - grade soybean oil basis price: In November, it is Y2501 + 200; from December to January, it is Y2501 + 220; from February to May, it is Y2605 + 300; from April to July, it is Y2505 + 220. The quotation of palm oil by Dongguan traders remains stable: 24 - degree palm oil in Dongguan factories is 01 - 80 [7] - Operation Suggestions - Short - term: View as volatile adjustment. Long - term: Adopt the strategy of buying on dips [8] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast - Rabobank expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach a record 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year, slightly higher than the USDA's current forecast of 175 million tons [9] - Brazilian Soybean Export Data - From October 1 to 24, Brazil's soybean export volume was 5.415 million tons, compared with 4.71 million tons in October last year. The average daily export volume in October so far is 300,843 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.5% [9] - Brazilian Soybean Sowing Progress - As of October 27, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in Paraná state, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season was 68%, higher than 52% a week ago. The excellent and good rate is 98%, and the general - rated proportion is 2%. 28% of the soybeans are germinating, 1% are in the flowering stage, and 71% are in the vegetative growth stage [9][10] - Global Soybean Production Forecast - The International Grains Council (IGC) predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 428 million tons, lower than the September expectation of 428.7 million tons and last year's 428.6 million tons. The US soybean production is adjusted down to 116 million tons, and Brazil's is expected to be 177 million tons [10] 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, and South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and some price spreads and exchange rate data. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][15]