广发期货日评-20251031

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific trading suggestions for different sectors and varieties: - Financial Sector - Equity Index Futures: Try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread for follow - up upside potential [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Go long on pullbacks for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy for the cash - futures strategy [3]. - Precious Metals: For gold, there is pressure for a further decline; for silver, it is in a volatile consolidation. Trading suggestions are based on price trends [3]. - Black Metals Sector - Steel: Reduce long positions appropriately and hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage [3]. - Iron Ore: Close long positions and observe, and consider the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Go long on pullbacks and hold the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [3]. - Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Copper: Pay attention to the support around 87,000 [3]. - Tin: Adopt a low - buying strategy on pullbacks [3]. - Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude Oil: Go short in the short term [3]. - Urea, PX, PTA, etc.: Adopt different strategies such as reducing long positions, short - selling on rallies, and spread trading according to different varieties [3]. - Agricultural Products Sector - Soybeans: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract [3]. - Palm Oil: The main contract may test the support at 8,800 yuan [3]. - Sugar: It is in a bottom - oscillating state around 5,400 [3]. - Cotton: It is in a range - bound and upward - trending state, paying attention to the pressure around 13,800 [3]. - Special and New Energy Sectors - Glass: Look for short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - Carbonate Lithium: It is in a relatively strong state, with the main contract reference range of 83,000 - 87,000 [3]. 2. Core Views - Market Environment: Key factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, and the clarification of bond - fund redemption fees have an impact on the market. Risk - preference - enhancing factors are gradually materializing, and uncertainties in the market are decreasing [3]. - Sector - specific Views - Financial Sector: Stock index futures are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations; treasury bond futures are on an upward trend as negative factors are gradually digested; precious metals are affected by geopolitical and trade factors [3]. - Black Metals Sector: Supply and demand factors such as production, transportation, and inventory levels affect the price trends of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [3]. - Non - ferrous Metals Sector: Prices are affected by factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and technical levels [3]. - Energy and Chemical Sector: Supply - demand expectations, cost support, and inventory levels are the main factors affecting prices [3]. - Agricultural Products Sector: Factors such as procurement, supply pressure, and seasonal characteristics affect the price trends of various agricultural products [3]. - Special and New Energy Sectors: Macro - events and fundamental factors affect the price trends of glass, rubber, and new - energy products [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - Financial Sector - Equity Index Futures: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, the market has a short - term pullback after reaching a high. It is recommended to try light - selling put options or constructing a bull call spread [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: As negative factors such as bond - fund redemption fees and central - bank bond - buying uncertainties are gradually digested, the bond market sentiment is improving. It is recommended to go long on pullbacks and consider the positive arbitrage strategy [3]. - Precious Metals: Gold is under pressure to decline due to factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and geopolitical concerns; silver is in a volatile consolidation [3]. - Black Metals Sector - Steel: The increase in apparent demand and the alleviation of inventory pressure lead to suggestions of reducing long positions and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - Iron Ore: The decline in shipping and arrivals, the increase in port inventory, and the sharp drop in molten - iron production lead to suggestions of closing long positions and considering arbitrage [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The strength of coking - coal prices and the cost support provided by coking coal lead to suggestions of going long on pullbacks and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Copper: After the realization of positive expectations, the price is in a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to the support level [3]. - Tin: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate outlook, it is recommended to buy on pullbacks [3]. - Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude Oil: Although the macro - sentiment has eased and inventory has decreased, the increase in OPEC production limits the rebound height. It is recommended to go short in the short term [3]. - Urea, PX, PTA, etc.: Due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support, different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [3]. - Agricultural Products Sector - Soybeans: Supported by China's increased confidence in purchasing US soybeans, hold long positions [3]. - Palm Oil: The main contract may test the support level [3]. - Sugar: It is in a bottom - oscillating state due to abundant overseas supply [3]. - Cotton: With the solidification of new - cotton costs, it is in a range - bound and upward - trending state [3]. - Special and New Energy Sectors - Glass: Affected by macro - events, pay attention to short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - Carbonate Lithium: With the upward shift of the price center and the realization of demand benefits, it is in a relatively strong state [3].