广发期货《农产品》日报-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to remain weakly volatile, with a chance of a short - term rebound in the 4200 - 4250 ringgit range. Dalian palm oil futures may follow the downward trend of Malaysian palm oil. Domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish, and the 1 - month contract of Dalian soybean oil may test the 8000 - yuan support and may break it [1]. Meal Products - Although domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, the cost - side support is strengthening. The trend of domestic soybean meal is expected to be bullish as it is difficult to source cheap soybeans in the near term [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - The secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and the market supply is relatively loose. Pig prices have weakened from a strong position. In the short term, prices may not fall significantly, but there will be an increase in the number of pigs for sale in November and December, and risks should be monitored around the Winter Solstice [4]. Sugar - Brazilian sugar supply is expected to be abundant, and raw sugar prices will remain weakly volatile. Domestic sugar prices have limited downward momentum as they approach the production cost, and the current bottom - shock pattern may continue [9]. Cotton - The downstream textile enterprises' demand for cotton is resilient, and the rising cost of new cotton provides support. However, cotton prices may face hedging pressure, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [10]. Corn - Due to sufficient grain sources in the Northeast and the behavior of farmers in North China, the overall corn price is stable with limited upside. With the supply pressure remaining, the futures market will maintain a low - level shock in the short term [11]. Eggs - Egg supply is sufficient, and demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize, with overall pressure [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats - Soybean Oil: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8400 yuan, the Y2601 futures price is 8168 yuan, and the basis is 232 yuan. The market is affected by the outcome of the Sino - US summit, and there is a risk of the 1 - month contract testing the 8000 - yuan support [1]. - Palm Oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8750 yuan. The BMD crude palm oil futures are weakly volatile, and Dalian palm oil may follow the downward trend [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9800 yuan, and the OI601 futures price is 9529 yuan [1]. Meal Products - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2970 yuan, the M2601 futures price is 2994 yuan, and the basis is - 24 yuan. The cost - side support is strengthening, and the trend is expected to be bullish [3]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2480 yuan, the RM2601 futures price is 2401 yuan, and the basis is 79 yuan [3]. - Soybeans: The spot price of Harbin soybeans is 3900 yuan, the main contract of Soybean No. 1 is 4103 yuan, and the basis is - 203 yuan. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3940 yuan, the main contract of Soybean No. 2 is 3704 yuan, and the basis is 236 yuan [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - Futures: The 2605 contract price is 11900 yuan/ton, the 2601 contract price is 11880 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 20 yuan [4]. - Spot: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan and other regions have different degrees of decline or stability [4]. Sugar - Futures: The 2601 contract price is 5472 yuan/ton, the 2605 contract price is 5407 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar main contract is 14.25 cents/lb [9]. - Spot: The spot price in Nanning is 5720 yuan/ton, and the basis is 343 yuan [9]. Cotton - Futures: The 2605 contract price is 13610 yuan/ton, the 2601 contract price is 13600 yuan/ton, and the ICE US cotton main contract is 65.09 cents/lb [10]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 14658 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B is 14843 yuan/ton [10]. Corn - Corn: The 2601 contract price is 2111 yuan/ton, the Jinzhou Port FAS price is 2120 yuan/ton, and the basis is 9 yuan [11]. - Corn Starch: The 2601 contract price is 2419 yuan/ton, the Changchun spot price is not provided, and the Weifang spot price is 2750 yuan/ton [11]. Eggs - Futures: The December contract price is 3157 yuan/500KG, the January contract price is 3353 yuan/500KG, and the 12 - 01 spread is - 196 yuan [16]. - Spot: The egg - producing area price is 2.93 yuan/T, and the basis is - 224 yuan/500KG [16].