广发期货《有色》日报-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - After the implementation of interest rate cuts and tariff policies, the copper market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The supply shortage of copper mines strengthens the price bottom, and downstream demand shows strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the support around 87,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum oxide market shows regional differentiation, with the north showing signs of bottoming and the south continuing to decline. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is strong, supported by macro factors and demand in some fields, and is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract ranging from 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market maintains a high - level oscillation. The cost support is prominent, and the supply shows a contraction trend. The demand shows a mild recovery, and the social inventory accumulates weekly. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - After the macro positive expectations are fulfilled, the zinc price oscillates. The supply is expected to increase limitedly due to compressed smelting profits, and the demand is stable. There is a risk of a short squeeze in LME, and the export window is intermittently open. The zinc price has short - term support but may continue to oscillate without a clear turning point in the supply - side logic [9]. Tin - The supply of tin mines remains tight, and the demand is weak. Powell's hawkish statement may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The subsequent trend depends on macro factors and the supply recovery in Myanmar [11]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillates. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, the mine price is firm, but the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is expected to decrease. The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the industry profit is shrinking. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market oscillates and weakens. The nickel ore price is firm, but the supply in the Philippines may decrease. The nickel - iron and chromium - iron prices are under pressure, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. The price is expected to weakly oscillate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong. The auction price of lithium mines provides support. The supply shows a slight decrease, and the demand is unexpectedly optimistic. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 83,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Copper: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 88,065 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 883 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum: SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 2,515 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum Alloy: SMM ADC12 price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. - Zinc: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 4,757 yuan/ton [9]. - Tin: SMM 1 tin price is 284,000 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 15,249.89 yuan/ton [11]. - Nickel: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,200 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1,540 yuan/ton [13]. - Stainless Steel: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 80,000 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data Production - Copper: The electrolytic copper production in September was 1.121 million tons, down 4.31% from the previous month [1]. - Aluminum: The aluminum oxide production in September was 7.6037 million tons, down 1.74% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, down 3.16% from the previous month [3]. - Aluminum Alloy: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in September was 661,000 tons, up 7.48% from the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, up 4.43% from the previous month [5]. - Zinc: The refined zinc production in September was 600,100 tons, down 4.17% from the previous month [9]. - Tin: The SMM refined tin production in September was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% from the previous month [11]. - Nickel: The production of refined nickel products in China was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% from the previous month [13]. - Stainless Steel: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 1.8217 million tons, up 0.38% from the previous month [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The production of lithium carbonate in September was 87,260 tons, up 2.37% from the previous month [17]. Inventory - Copper: The domestic social inventory of copper is 182,600 tons, up 0.55% from the previous week; the SHFE inventory is 104,800 tons, down 4.94% from the previous week [1]. - Aluminum: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China is 619,000 tons, up 0.16% from the previous day; the LME inventory is 460,000 tons, down 0.70% from the previous day [3]. - Aluminum Alloy: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 54,800 tons, up 0.18% from the previous week [5]. - Zinc: The seven - place social inventory of zinc ingots in China is 161,500 tons, down 0.37% from the previous week; the LME inventory is 35,000 tons, down 0.85% from the previous day [9]. - Tin: The SHEF inventory of tin is 5,766 tons, up 1.32% from the previous week; the social inventory is 6,828 tons, down 2.69% from the previous week [11]. - Nickel: The SHFE inventory of nickel is 36,075 tons, up 4.81% from the previous week; the social inventory is 48,802 tons, up 2.29% from the previous week [13]. - Stainless Steel: The social inventory of 300 - series (Wuxi + Foshan) is 492,200 tons, down 0.55% from the previous week; the SHFE warrant is 73,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The total inventory of lithium carbonate in September was 94,539 tons, up 0.38% from the previous month [17].