集运早报-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Wednesday market fluctuated and slightly declined. In the first half of November, OA and MSK had no pressure in receiving goods, while the PA alliance was short of goods, leading to price cuts. In the second half of November, due to the previous congestion at European ports, 4 ships might cause the overall fundamentals to be tight in November. The market has a neutral expectation that the freight rate in November may reach 2000 - 2200 US dollars (1400 - 1540 points). It is necessary to observe whether shipping companies will take actions such as blank sailings or re - allocation. Also, observe whether shipping companies will announce price increases for the second half of the month [2]. - Currently, the valuation of the 12 contract is moderately high. Driven by multiple factors such as upcoming price increase announcements and long - term contract signings from November to December, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips (waiting for a possible market decline in the second half of November). The valuation of the 02 contract is difficult to determine, with high uncertainty, and it is expected to follow the trend of the 12 contract in the next month. The 04 contract is for the off - season, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies under the greater supply pressure next year [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Information - Contract Prices and Changes: The closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts on the previous day were 1843.8, 1583.0, 1175.9, 1403.3, 1487.5, and 1132.5 respectively, with changes of - 1.45%, - 1.43%, - 1.59%, - 1.38%, - 2.22%, and - 0.63% [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts on the previous day were 17598, 4555, 1891, 96, 119, and 388 respectively. The open interests were 30114, 16233, 14460, 1411, 1324, and 1062 respectively, with changes of - 17, 348, 0, 1, 24, and 150 [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The month - to - month spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, and EC2502 - 2604 were 667.9, 260.8, and 407.1 respectively, with changes of - 8.7, - 4.2, and - 4.5 compared to the previous day [2]. Index Information - SCHIS: The latest value on October 27, 2025, was 1312.71 points, with a month - on - month increase of 15.11% and a year - on - year increase of 8.82% [2]. - SCFI (European Line): On October 24, 2025, it was 1246 US dollars/TEU, compared to 1145 in the previous period and 1068 two periods ago [2]. - CCFI (European Line): On October 24, 2025, it was 1293.12 points, with a month - on - month increase of 1.99% and a decrease of 1.49% in the previous period [2]. - NCFI: On October 24, 2025, it was 822.3 points, with a month - on - month increase of 2.38% and a 14.96% increase in the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotation Information - Week 44 Quotations: The offline quotations of PA, GEMINI, and OA were 1400, 1600, and 1800 US dollars respectively [4]. - November Price Increase Announcements: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market. MSK opened at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations, and then shipping companies reduced the price to 1800 - 2300 US dollars, with a central range of 2000 - 2100 US dollars [4]. Shipping Company Price Adjustment Information - Wednesday: MSK reduced the price to 2200 US dollars and announced a long - term contract peak - season surcharge of 300 US dollars/FEU. YML reduced the price of a single route to 1850 US dollars [8]. - Thursday: ONE reduced the price to 1900 US dollars, HMM to 1800 US dollars. OOCL reduced the price of a single route to 2100 US dollars, and the rest were in the range of 2200 - 2300 US dollars [8]. News - On October 30, the US Senate passed a resolution to terminate President Trump's global comprehensive tariff policy with 51 votes in favor and 47 against [6]. - On October 30, the Israeli military said it had carried out air strikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese president ordered the military to respond to Israeli incursions [6].