广发期货《能源化工》日报-20251031

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Supply is at a high level, with weak demand support in the short - term due to shrinking industry profits in downstream alumina. However, there may be demand support in the medium - to long - term as the procurement cycle approaches and alumina has more planned production in Q1 next year [1]. - PVC: Supply returns to a high level as some maintenance enterprises resume production. Domestic downstream demand remains weak, and cost provides bottom - line support. The market is expected to be lackluster during the peak season [1]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply is generally stable, and demand support has strengthened. It is in a situation of high short - term supply and demand but with a weak overall outlook. Cost support is limited, and the rebound space is restricted [2]. - PTA: Spot basis is weak, and the rebound is expected to face pressure due to factors such as the resumption of some device loads and the decline in oil prices [2]. - MEG: Port inventory decreases, but the upward driving force weakens. The far - month supply - demand structure is weak, and there is significant upward pressure [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand has improved slightly, but the overall supply - demand drive is limited. The price rebound is expected to face pressure, but it has relatively stronger support at low inventory levels [2]. - Bottle - chips: Entering the seasonal inventory accumulation period, it mainly follows cost fluctuations, and the processing fee fluctuates [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Domestic supply is loose, and demand support is limited. The overall supply - demand expectation is still loose, and price drive is limited. It follows oil prices and styrene fluctuations [5]. - Styrene: Under inventory and profit pressure, supply pressure still exists, and demand support is limited. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the rebound is expected to face pressure [5]. Methanol - The port market is under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. The inland market has price inversion problems. The MTO load decreases, and demand support is insufficient. The price is expected to decline in the short - term, and attention should be paid to port de - stocking and overseas gas - limiting expectations [8]. Polyolefins - PP: Supply recovery slows down due to more unplanned maintenance. PE: Supply is expected to increase as maintenance peaks. Demand has warmed up, and inventory is decreasing. The 01 contract has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may have long - term low - buying opportunities [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - Prices: Some PVC spot and futures prices changed slightly, and caustic soda prices were mostly stable [1]. - Supply: Caustic soda industry and some regional开工 rates increased slightly, while PVC total开工 rate decreased [1]. - Demand: Caustic soda downstream开工 rates were mostly stable, and PVC downstream制品开工 rates increased slightly [1]. - Inventory: Both caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased to some extent [1]. Polyester Industry - Upstream prices: PX, ethylene, and other prices changed slightly, and oil prices increased slightly [2]. - Downstream product prices and cash flows: Prices and cash flows of polyester products such as FDY, bottle - chips, and short - fibers changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - 开工 rates: The综合开工 rate of polyester was stable, and the开工 rates of some segments such as PTA and MEG changed [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Upstream prices and spreads: Prices of crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene changed slightly, and spreads also changed [5]. - Benzene - related prices and spreads: Benzene and styrene prices decreased, and spreads changed [5]. - Downstream cash flows: Cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene improved [5]. - Inventory: Both pure benzene and styrene port inventories decreased [5]. - 开工 rates:开工 rates of some segments in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain decreased [5]. Methanol - Prices and spreads: Methanol futures and spot prices decreased, and spreads changed [6]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased, port inventory decreased slightly, and social inventory increased slightly [7]. - 开工 rates: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise开工 rates decreased slightly, and some downstream开工 rates increased while others decreased [8]. Polyolefins - Prices and spreads: PE and PP futures and spot prices decreased, and spreads changed [10]. - Inventory: Both PE and PP inventories decreased [10]. - 开工 rates: PE装置开工率 decreased slightly, and downstream加权开工率 increased. PP装置开工率 decreased, and some downstream开工 rates increased [10].