延续强势，关注新季苹果入库情况

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the context of lower - than - expected production and significantly declining quality, it is expected that the price of high - quality apples will remain strong. The purchase price of new - season bagged Fuji apples in Shandong is higher than that of the previous year, with an increase of about 0.5 - 0.7 yuan per jin. There may still be some upside potential in the futures market, but there is a risk of the realization of the production reduction expectation. Later, the driving logic will shift to the demand side, and high prices will also have a certain inhibitory effect on consumption. It is recommended to consider taking profits on long positions and pay attention to the storage situation of new - season apples [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review The main contract of apple futures, AP2601, reached a high and then declined, refreshing the upward high [8]. 3.2 Supply - side Situation As of September 25, 2025, the total remaining inventory of apples in cold storage nationwide was 147,900 tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The remaining inventory in Shandong was 109,600 tons, and that in Shaanxi was 36,900 tons. Due to the end of the cold - storage apple clearance, the statistics of cold - storage inventory were suspended. The first - phase inventory of new - season apples is expected to be counted on November 6, with a correction time of about one month. The supply of high - quality new - season apples is scarce, and the overall quality is average. The apples in the northwest production area are in the late stage of being picked, and cold - storage warehousing is continuing [12]. 3.3 Demand - side Situation - Market Transaction: The market in Shandong mainly purchases general - grade apples. In the northwest production area, merchants are actively placing orders, mostly for high - quality goods. The arrival of goods in the wholesale market is stable, the sales speed is acceptable, and the mainstream price remains stable [17]. - Export Volume: In September, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32%. The fourth quarter and the first quarter of the next year are the export peak seasons, and it is expected that the export volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 may rebound [20]. - Substitute Fruit Price: No specific content provided. - Spot Price: As of October 31, the price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The price of new - season bagged Fuji apples (80 and above, slice - red, first - and second - grade) was 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per jin, and that of striped apples was 4.0 - 5.0 yuan per jin. The mainstream price of first - and second - grade apples was 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per jin, and the high - standard price was 4.5 - 5.0 yuan per jin. The price of first - and second - grade semi - apples (80 and above) was 3.2 - 3.5 yuan per jin, and that of general - grade apples (80 and above) was 2.8 - 3.2 yuan per jin, higher than before. The price of third - grade apples was 1.3 - 1.8 yuan per jin, priced according to quality [32].