焦煤市场周报：宏观、供应情绪扰动，盘面短期走势偏强-20251031

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that the main contract price of coking coal futures will likely fluctuate between 1150 - 1350, and the main contract of coke futures will fluctuate between 1650 - 1850. This prediction is based on various factors including significant macro - level disturbances, average finished product demand in September, better - than - expected steel demand in the current period but a continuous decline in crude steel production, supply - side sentiment disturbances due to safety regulations, and downstream seasonal restocking. Additionally, there is limited room for significant improvement in coke profits [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 190.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons compared to the previous week. The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons. The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 1941.99 million tons, an increase of 27.83 million tons compared to the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 1.66%. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 32 yuan/ton. The steel mill profitability rate was 45.02%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points compared to the previous week and a decrease of 16.02 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The daily average hot metal output was 236.36 million tons, a decrease of 3.54 million tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 0.89 million tons compared to the same period last year [7]. - Market Outlook: Macroscopically, the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway completed its autumn maintenance, and relevant policies were issued. Overseas, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods. In terms of supply and demand, the mine - end operating rate has declined slightly for two consecutive weeks, inventory is neutral, the coal - washing plant operating rate has declined, and the total inventory has a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the weekly K - line of the main coking coal 2601 contract is above the 60 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of October 31, the coking coal futures contract open interest was 958,000 lots, an increase of 33,000 lots compared to the previous week. The coking coal 5 - 1 contract spread was 68.0, an increase of 4 points. The number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts decreased by 100 lots compared to the previous week, and the ratio of the coke - coking coal January contract decreased by 0.03 compared to the previous week [14][16]. - Spot Market: As of October 30, 2025, the ex - factory price of Mongolian coking coal (5, Ganqimaodu Port) was 1320 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. As of October 31, the coking coal basis was - 8.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.5 points compared to the previous week [25]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Upstream: From January to September, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3.57 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. In September, the output was 410 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, with a daily average output of 13.72 million tons. In August 2025, China's coking coal output was 36.9686 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.60%. From January to August, China's imported coking coal decreased by 8% year - on - year. In September 2025, the total imported coking coal reached 10.9236 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% [55][58]. - Industry: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.8%, a decrease of 0.3%. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.5%, a decrease of 0.41%. The total coking coal inventory increased by 27.83 million tons compared to the previous week. The coking coal inventory in ports increased, with different trends in different regions. The hot metal output decreased by 3.54 million tons compared to the previous week. The steel mill coking coal inventory decreased, and the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 32 yuan/ton [31][35][46].