广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20251031

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Supply-wise, rain in the producing areas continued until the end of the month, causing raw material prices to rise, which provided short-term support for rubber prices. In the long run, there was still an expectation of increased supply. Demand-wise, semi-steel tire companies maintained stable production, while some all-steel tire companies had rising inventories. Overnight, the Fed's hawkish stance on the December interest rate cut pressured rubber prices in the short term. If raw material supply increased smoothly, rubber prices might decline further; otherwise, they were expected to trade between 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs - Spot Prices and Basis: On October 30, the price of Yunnan Guofu standard rubber (SCRWF) was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The basis of the whole process was -600 yuan/ton, up 31.43%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 1.32%. The non-standard price difference was -450 yuan/ton, up 5.26%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market was 53.25 Thai baht/kg, down 0.19%. The FOB intermediate price of glue in the international market was 55.50 Thai baht/kg, up 0.91%. The price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna was 13,000 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna was 14,100 yuan/ton, up 2.17%. The mainstream market price of raw materials in Hainan was 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - Monthly Spreads: On October 30, the 9 - 1 spread was 150 yuan/ton, up 3.45% from the previous day. The 1 - 5 spread was -90 yuan/ton, down 12.50%. The 5 - 9 spread was -60 yuan/ton, up 7.69% [1]. - Fundamental Data: In August, Thailand's production was 458,800 tons, down 0.43% from the previous month. Indonesia's production was 189,000 tons, down 4.30%. India's production was 500,000 tons, up 11.11%. China's production data was not provided. The weekly operating rate of semi-steel tires was 73.41%, down 0.26 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of all-steel tires was 65.34%, down 0.24 percentage points. In August, domestic tire production was 102.954 million pieces, up 9.10%. In September, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 5.63 million pieces, down 10.65%. In August, the total import volume of natural rubber was 595,900 tons, up 14.41%. In September, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 740,000 tons, up 12.12%. The daily production cost of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand was 13,327 yuan/ton, up 0.08%. The daily production profit of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand was -572 yuan/ton, down 35.22%. The daily production cost of dry rubber (RSS3) in Thailand was 16,414 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The daily production profit of dry rubber (RSS3) in Thailand was 2,186 yuan/ton, down 1.18% [1]. - Inventory Changes: As of October 30, the bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 432,229 tons, down 1.20% from the previous day. The factory warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 42,640 tons, up 6.28%. The出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao was 4.94%, down 1.50 percentage points. The warehousing rate of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao was 11.61%, up 1.99 percentage points. The出库 rate of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao was 12.69%, up 3.11 percentage points [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The log futures market was under pressure due to a significant increase in supply at the port, insufficient downstream orders, and falling prices at surrounding ports. However, the relatively low futures price and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices provided some support for import costs, limiting the downside space. Overall, the log futures market was expected to remain weakly volatile [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs - Futures and Spot Prices: On October 30, the prices of log futures contracts LG2511, LG2601, LG2603, and LG2605 were 763.5, 786, 802, and 818.5 yuan/cubic meter respectively, with changes of -1.17%, -0.13%, -0.31%, and -0.12% from the previous day. The 11 - 01 spread was -22.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 6.5 yuan from the previous day. The 11 - 03 spread was -38.5 yuan/cubic meter. The 11 - contract basis was -3.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 9 yuan from the previous day. The 01 - contract basis was -26 yuan/cubic meter, up 1 yuan from the previous day. The prices of 3.9A small, medium, and large radiata pine at Rizhao Port were 710, 760, and 880 yuan/cubic meter respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of 4A small, medium, and large radiata pine at Taicang Port were 710, 770, and 820 yuan/cubic meter respectively, with the small and medium radiata pine prices down 1.39% and 1.28% respectively. The price of spruce 11.8 at Rizhao Port was 1,180 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 115 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. The CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 125 euros/JAS cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Cost: Import Cost Calculation: On October 30, the RMB/USD exchange rate was 7.100, up 0.003 from the previous day. The import theoretical cost, calculated with a 15% over - length allowance, was 802.74 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.30 yuan from the previous day [3]. - Supply: In September, the port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 1.766 million cubic meters, up 6.00% from August. The number of departing ships was 46, up 4.55% from August [3]. - Inventory: Main Port Inventory: As of October 24, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 2.84 million cubic meters, down 80,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 1.865 million cubic meters, up 1.03%. The inventory in Jiangsu was 786,900 cubic meters, down 11.32% [3]. - Demand: Average Daily Outbound Volume: As of October 24, the average daily outbound volume in China was 64,400 cubic meters, up 2% from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 34,200 cubic meters, up 4%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 23,300 cubic meters, down 4% [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View For soda ash, the macro - level leaders' meeting had a negative impact on the commodity market, and the previous rebound ended abruptly. The supply was at a high level, and the demand was mainly driven by rigid needs. The market was still under pressure, and investors were advised to wait for a rebound to short. For glass, the macro - level situation also had a negative impact. The spot sales improved recently, driving the futures market to stabilize and rebound. However, the deep - processing orders were still weak, and the industry needed to clear excess capacity in the long run. Investors were advised to close previous short positions and look for short - term long opportunities by monitoring the spot market [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs - Glass - Related Prices and Spreads: On October 31, the spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China were 1,130, 1,250, 1,120, and 1,210 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of glass contracts 2505 and 2509 were 1,243 and 1,327 yuan/ton respectively, down 2.81% and 2.21% from the previous day. The 05 - contract basis was -113 yuan/ton, up 24.16% from the previous day [4]. - Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads: On October 31, the spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China were 1,300, 1,250, 1,250, and 950 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of soda ash contracts 2505 and 2509 were 1,324 and 1,382 yuan/ton respectively, down 1.71% and 1.34% from the previous day. The 05 - contract basis was -24 yuan/ton, up 48.94% from the previous day [4]. - Supply: On October 31, the soda ash operating rate was 86.89%, down 1.72 percentage points from October 24. The weekly soda ash production was 757,600 tons, down 1.71%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 161,300 tons, unchanged. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 88,540 tons, down 0.84%. The mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass was 19.50 yuan, down 2.50% [4]. - Inventory: As of October 31, the glass factory warehouse inventory was 65.79 million weight boxes, up 4.72% from October 24. The soda ash factory warehouse inventory was 170,200 tons, up 2.54%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory was 676,900 tons, down 3.18%. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories was 20.4 days, unchanged [4]. - Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year): In the current period, the new construction area was -0.09%, up 0.09 percentage points from the previous period. The construction area was 0.05%, down 2.43 percentage points. The completion area was -0.22%, down 0.03 percentage points. The sales area was -6.55%, down 6.50 percentage points [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and the futures price rose first and then fell back 15 yuan/ton, closing at 9,155 yuan/ton. The increase in weekly supply and the decrease in demand might lead to inventory accumulation, putting pressure on prices. The opening of the arbitrage window in East China might bring hedging opportunities. The rise in coking coal prices might drive up the futures price of industrial silicon. Overall, the price of industrial silicon was expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a main price range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis: On October 30, the price of East China oxygen - enriched SI5530 industrial silicon was 9,320 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from the previous day. The basis (based on oxygen - enriched SI5530) was 295 yuan/ton, up 63.89%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The basis (based on SI4210) was -255 yuan/ton, up 20.31%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade industrial silicon was 8,750 yuan/ton, up 0.57%. The basis (in Xinjiang) was 385 yuan/ton, up 19.70% [5]. - Monthly Spreads: On October 30, the 2511 - 2512 spread was -385 yuan/ton, down 2.60% from the previous day. The 2512 - 2601 spread was 30 yuan/ton, up 200.00%. The 2601 - 2602 spread was -10 yuan/ton, down 66.67%. The 2602 - 2603 spread was 10 yuan/ton, up 128.57%. The 2603 - 2604 spread was -10 yuan/ton, down 133.33% [5]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): The national industrial silicon production was 420,800 tons, up 9.10% from the previous month. Xinjiang's production was 203,200 tons, up 19.78%. Yunnan's production was 58,100 tons, up 2.41%. Sichuan's production was 52,900 tons, down 1.49%. The national operating rate was 61.94%, up 10.86 percentage points. Xinjiang's operating rate was 74.00%, up 22.09 percentage points. Yunnan's operating rate was 41.71%, down 11.99 percentage points. Sichuan's operating rate was 44.94%, up 1.47 percentage points. The production of organic silicon DMC was 210,200 tons, down 5.78%. The production of polysilicon was 130,000 tons, down 1.29%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy was 661,000 tons, up 7.48%. The export volume of industrial silicon was 70,200 tons, down 8.36% [5]. - Inventory Changes: As of October 30, the factory warehouse inventory in Xinjiang was 108,100 tons, down 0.28% from the previous day. The factory warehouse inventory in Yunnan was 34,600 tons, up 1.47%. The factory warehouse inventory in Sichuan was 25,200 tons, unchanged. The social inventory was 558,000 tons, down 0.18%. The warehouse receipt inventory was 237,100 tons, up 0.15%. The non - warehouse receipt inventory was 321,000 tons, down 0.42% [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The spot price of polysilicon decreased slightly by 50 yuan/ton to 52,300 yuan/ton, and the futures price fluctuated and fell 40 yuan/ton, closing at 54,950 yuan/ton. With the shutdown of production capacity in Southwest China, the production in November was expected to drop to about 120,000 tons. The weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased by 3 - 4%. Although the silicon wafer production schedule increased, the downstream procurement decreased, leading to an increase in inventory. Currently, polysilicon prices were mainly in high - level consolidation. Attention should be paid to the establishment of platform companies, production control, and whether there would be an increase in downstream orders. Since the futures price was higher than the spot average price, further significant price increases would depend on the hedging and arbitrage space of upstream enterprises. Also, the implementation of follow - up measures or policies should be monitored [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs - Spot Prices and Basis: On October 30, the average price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 52,300 yuan/kg, down 0.10